Swiss November 2025 Inflation Holds Steady at 0%: Policy and Economic Implications

This analysis is grounded in the Wall Street Journal report [1] published on 2025-12-03, which states Swiss consumer price inflation held steady at 0% YoY in November 2025, a slight decrease from October’s 0.1% YoY. Complementary data from Swissinfo (citing Bloomberg) [2] confirms the EU-harmonized inflation measure for Switzerland also registered 0% in November, noting the reading was unexpected and underlying inflation reached a four-year low.

The announcement precedes the SNB’s final 2025 policy decision on December 11, amid challenging macroeconomic conditions: Swiss GDP contracted by -0.5% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) [4], with YoY growth slowing to 0.5%. The SNB’s current policy rate of ~0%—the lowest among major central banks [4]—and its formal 0-2% inflation target [3] create a delicate balance: the bank must support growth while mitigating deflationary pressures from further CHF appreciation, which has suppressed import prices [4].

OECD forecasts [3] project Swiss inflation will remain within the SNB’s target range through 2027, driven by sustained CHF strength, lower energy prices, and a cooling labor market. A Bloomberg survey [2] of economists aligns with this outlook, expecting the SNB to keep rates unchanged through 2027, with a potential hike in Q1 2028.

1. Unique Policy Challenge
   : Switzerland’s 0% inflation, combined with recent GDP contraction and the SNB’s near-zero policy rate, is a rare scenario among developed economies, which have generally experienced higher inflation in recent years [2].
2. Currency-Inflation Feedback Loop
   : The strong CHF’s role in suppressing import prices is a core factor in the low inflation environment, with further CHF appreciation posing heightened deflationary risks [4].
3. Expectations vs. Underlying Trends
   : While market analysts anticipate unchanged rates through 2027 [2], the unexpected four-year low in underlying inflation signals broad-based disinflationary pressures that could prompt earlier policy adjustments.

• Deflation Risk
  : Further CHF appreciation or sharp energy price declines could push inflation into negative territory [3].
• Currency Volatility
  : A dovish SNB tone at the December 11 meeting may weaken the CHF, while persistent low inflation could strengthen safe-haven demand for the currency [2].
• Slow Growth
  : Weak exports (due to CHF strength) and low investment (amid global uncertainty) may limit overall GDP expansion [3].

• Consumer Support
  : Low inflation sustains private consumption, a key driver of Swiss GDP [3].
• Policy Flexibility
  : The SNB’s 0-2% target allows measured responses without immediate rate adjustments [3].
• Exporter Relief
  : Potential SNB intervention to curb excessive CHF appreciation could stabilize conditions for Swiss exporters [4].

Swiss inflation held steady at 0% YoY in November 2025, within the SNB’s 0-2% target but marking an unexpected slowdown from October’s 0.1% and a four-year low in underlying inflation [1][2]. The SNB faces policy challenges amid recent GDP contraction (-0.5% QoQ) [4], balancing growth support against deflationary risks from CHF appreciation. Market expectations lean toward unchanged rates through 2027, with OECD projections showing inflation remaining stable within the target range [2][3].