2025 IPO Underperformance: StubHub, Klarna, Gemini Signal 2026 Market Caution

This analysis is based on the Barrons article [1] highlighting post-IPO underperformance of three high-profile companies: StubHub (STUB), Klarna (KLAR), and Gemini (GEMI) in late 2025. The underperformance is notable because it occurred during a period of general market growth: the S&P 500 rose 2.47%, Dow Jones Industrial Average 2.35%, and NASDAQ Composite 3.99% from October 1 to December 2, 2025 [0]. Even the Consumer Cyclical sector (which includes STUB and KLAR) gained 1.83% on December 2, 2025 [0], indicating the underperformance is likely company-specific or tied to broader IPO market conditions rather than general market weakness.

Key performance metrics include:

• Gemini (GEMI, crypto exchange): -72.14% since its September 12, 2025 IPO, dropping from an all-time high of $45.89 on IPO day to $10.31 on December 2, 2025 [0, 2]
• StubHub (STUB, ticket marketplace): -31.43% from October 1 to December 2, 2025, closing at $11.54 on December 2 [0]
• Klarna (KLAR, fintech payment): -15.22% from October 1 to December 2, 2025, closing at $31.19 on December 2 [0]

Company-specific factors likely contribute: Gemini faces regulatory risks tied to its crypto exchange model, StubHub operates in a highly competitive ticketing industry sensitive to consumer spending, and Klarna confronts regulatory scrutiny of its buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) services [0].

1. The divergence between the three companies’ underperformance and broader market gains suggests issues unique to these firms or the current IPO market, rather than systemic market weakness [0].
2. Gemini’s steep decline (70% from its IPO-day high [2]) underscores the heightened regulatory and business model risks associated with crypto sector IPOs.
3. The underperformance of these high-profile IPOs is likely to introduce caution among investors evaluating 2026’s planned IPOs, potentially leading to lower valuation multiples or reduced demand [1].

• Risks
  :
  • IPO Market Risk: 2026 IPOs may face compressed valuations or weaker investor demand due to eroded confidence from recent high-profile fizzles [1].
  • Company-Specific Risks: Regulatory changes (crypto for Gemini, BNPL for Klarna) and competitive pressures (ticketing for StubHub) pose ongoing threats to the three underperforming firms [0].
  • Market Sentiment Risk: Continued underperformance could slow the broader IPO pipeline as companies delay going public amid unfavorable market conditions [1].

• Opportunities
  : Cautious investors may identify undervalued assets if the three companies’ underlying fundamentals remain strong, though data gaps (e.g., exact IPO offer prices for STUB/KLAR, detailed underperformance causes) require further due diligence [0].

• StubHub (STUB), Klarna (KLAR), and Gemini (GEMI) experienced significant post-IPO underperformance in late 2025, despite broader market growth [0, 1].
• Company-specific challenges (regulatory risks, competition) and potential IPO market dynamics are likely drivers of the underperformance [0].
• Gemini’s crypto-focused business model contributed to its steep decline, highlighting sector-specific risks [2].
• The trend signals increased investor caution for 2026’s IPO pipeline, with further analysis needed to confirm broader market trends and underperformance causes [1].