2025 Thanksgiving Weekend Shopping Turnout Reaches Record 202.9M U.S. Consumers: NRF

This analysis is based on the CNBC report [1] detailing the NRF’s 2025 Thanksgiving-Cyber Monday shopping data. The record 202.9 million shoppers mark a 2.99% YoY increase, surpassing the NRF’s pre-season forecast of 186.9 million [1]. The shift to e-commerce is evident in 9% YoY online growth (134.9M shoppers) outpacing 3% YoY in-store growth (129.5M), yet physical retail remains robust—demonstrating a hybrid shopping landscape during peak holiday periods [1]. Complementary Adobe Analytics data reinforces online strength: $44.2B in 5-day online spending (+7.7% YoY) and $14.25B on Cyber Monday alone (+7.1% YoY) [1]. The turnout aligns with the NRF’s historic $1.1-$1.2T holiday spending forecast, as shoppers reported completing only 47% of their holiday shopping by Cyber Monday (similar to 2024), indicating sustained momentum through December [1].

1. Consumer Resilience Amid Uncertainty
   : The record turnout contradicts recent low consumer sentiment and white-collar layoff data, suggesting holiday shopping remains a household priority, often labeled an “emotional purchase” by NRF CEO Matt Shay [1].
2. Hybrid Retail Strength
   : While online growth accelerates, the 129.5 million in-store shoppers prove physical retail still drives significant peak-season traffic [1].
3. Discount Strategy Effectiveness
   : Deep discounts, promotions, and free shipping were the top shopper motivators, but reliance on these tactics may pressure retailer margins (a gap in available data) [1].
4. Labor Efficiency
   : The strong turnout occurred alongside the lowest holiday hiring in 15 years (265,000-365,000 seasonal roles), indicating retailers are optimizing labor costs while meeting demand [1].

• Opportunities
  : Retailers with robust online platforms and targeted discount strategies are well-positioned for strong Q4 earnings [1]. The $1T+ holiday spending forecast underscores the sector’s growth potential.
• Risks
  : Discount-driven traffic may compress profit margins (unaddressed in the report). Economic headwinds (e.g., tumbling consumer sentiment) could dampen December spending momentum. Data gaps include spending breakdown by income level and pre-2017 long-term trends [1].

• Data Sources
  : NRF survey (3,100 adults, Nov 26-30, 2025; conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics) and Adobe Analytics (1T+ retail site visits, 100M+ items) [1].
• Tracking History
  : NRF has monitored 5-day Thanksgiving-Cyber Monday turnout since 2017 [1].
• Forecast Scope
  : NRF’s $1.1-$1.2T forecast excludes auto dealers, gas stations, and restaurants [1].