Analysis of Strong Performance and Sustainability Judgment of Ludao Feng (301043)

1. Reasons for Strong Performance
   : Ludao Feng entered the strong stock pool mainly driven by two factors. First, short-term funds actively participated: on December 1, the main capital net bought 33.2051 million yuan, accounting for 11.89% of total turnover, with a turnover rate of 9.75%, indicating a high degree of participation by hot money [2]. Second, market sentiment drove it: the mechanical equipment sector and the ChiNext Index have rebounded recently, which had a positive impact on the stock.
2. Technical Support
   : Recent price fluctuations are large. From November 24 to 27, it rose from 40.85 yuan to 55.13 yuan (an increase of 34.96%), then pulled back to 48.42 yuan, and closed at 49.36 yuan on December 1 [0]. Technically, the short-term resistance level is at 55 yuan (the highest price on November 27), and the support level is at 45 yuan (the lowest price on November 26). Currently, it is fluctuating around 50 yuan, lacking a clear trend direction.
3. Fundamental Support
   : According to the 2025 third quarterly report, Ludao Feng’s revenue in the first three quarters was 435 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%; the net profit attributable to shareholders was 61.7373 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.49% [1]. The company’s fundamentals are poor, and there are no obvious positive news or signs of performance improvement, so the rise lacks fundamental catalysts.

1. Contradiction Between Capital and Fundamentals
   : The speculation of short-term funds and the deterioration of fundamentals form a sharp contrast, indicating that the rise is mainly driven by speculative demand rather than the improvement of company value.
2. Impact of Low Institutional Participation
   : Institutional research is less frequent, lacking long-term capital support, which further weakens the sustainability basis of the rise [3].
3. Implication of Technical Volatility
   : The current price is fluctuating in the support-resistance range. If it cannot effectively break through 55 yuan, the risk of correction is high.

1. Main Risks
   :
   • Fundamental Risk: Revenue and net profit continue to decline. If performance further deteriorates, it will suppress the stock price [1].
   • Speculative Risk: Under the dominance of short-term funds, the stock price fluctuates violently, and the speculative risk is high.
   • Technical Risk: The 55 yuan resistance above is obvious, and it is difficult to break through, which may trigger a correction.
2. Opportunities
   : Currently, there are no clear investment opportunities because there are no signs of fundamental improvement.

Ludao Feng (301043) entered the strong stock pool mainly driven by short-term capital speculation and market sentiment. The technical side shows a volatile trend, and the fundamental support is weak. Due to the dominance of speculative funds and insufficient institutional attention, the sustainability of the rise is questionable. Investors need to pay attention to risks such as fundamental deterioration, stock price fluctuations, and technical resistance.