Art Hogan Forecasts Two 2026 Fed Rate Cuts; Mag 6 Stocks and Tech Sectors Show Resilience

This analysis is based on market strategist Art Hogan’s December 1, 2025, YouTube video [1], where he forecast the Federal Reserve could cut rates at least twice in 2026, citing upcoming (delayed) Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation and jobs data. He also highlighted the ongoing strength of the “Mag 6” mega-cap tech stocks (AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META, TSLA).

On the day of Hogan’s comments, market indices showed mixed results: the S&P 500 (^GSPC) closed flat (+0.00%) [0], the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) rose 0.45% [0], and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell 0.61% [0]. Sector performance reflected a rotation toward growth stocks, with technology (+0.52%) and communication services (+0.695%) leading—sectors closely tied to the Mag 6 [0]. This aligns with Hogan’s positive outlook on these mega-cap names.

Individual Mag 6 stocks had mixed after-hours performance: AAPL gained 1.52% (with a regular-day range of $276.14–$283.36) [0], AMZN rose 0.28% [0], while MSFT (-1.07%), GOOGL (-1.65%), META (-1.09%), and TSLA (-0.01%) saw mild declines or consolidation [0]. Despite some profit-taking in a few names, the overall sector strength underscores ongoing investor confidence in the Mag 6.

BofA Global Research’s revised outlook, released the same day, also projects two additional quarter-point rate cuts in 2026 (June/July) [2], aligning with Hogan’s forecast. Treasury yields moved higher as traders increased bets on a December 2025 Fed cut, reflecting growing market expectations for monetary easing [2]. Notably, the PCE and jobs data referenced by Hogan are delayed due to the 43-day U.S. government shutdown [3], which complicates the Fed’s policy assessment and introduces market uncertainty.

1. Growth vs. Value Rotation
   : The NASDAQ’s outperformance relative to the Dow on December 1 underscores how rate-cut optimism can drive rotation into growth-oriented tech stocks, particularly the Mag 6—supporting Hogan’s assessment of their ongoing strength.
2. Data Delay Double-Edged Sword
   : Government shutdown-induced data delays may give the Fed a window to cut rates (as Hogan suggests) but also reduce economic clarity, increasing the risk of policy missteps.
3. Fed Dissent Risk
   : Despite market and analyst expectations of rate cuts, up to five FOMC members oppose further easing [2], indicating potential obstacles to the projected rate-cut path.

• Policy Uncertainty
  : A divided Fed and delayed economic data could lead to heightened volatility, especially around the December 9–10 FOMC meeting [2].
• Valuation Vulnerability
  : Mag 6 stocks carry elevated valuations (e.g., TSLA’s TTM P/E ratio of 226.39) [0], which could be vulnerable to a shift in rate-cut sentiment.
• Data Reliability Concerns
  : Delayed and potentially revised economic data may provide an incomplete picture of inflation and labor market conditions, impacting Fed decisions [3].

• Tech Sector Support
  : Rate-cut expectations could continue to support growth sectors like technology and communication services, potentially benefiting the Mag 6 if the Fed follows through on projected cuts [1][2].
• Optimism Window
  : The current environment of rate-cut optimism may present opportunities for investors focused on long-term tech growth, though valuation risks should be closely monitored.

Art Hogan’s December 1, 2025, analysis forecasts the Fed will cut rates at least twice in 2026, citing upcoming delayed economic data, and highlights the Mag 6’s ongoing strength. Market performance that day showed tech and communication services sectors leading, with the NASDAQ up 0.45% while the Dow fell 0.61%. BofA’s concurrent outlook aligns with Hogan’s rate-cut forecast. However, risks include Fed divisions, Mag 6 valuation concerns, and delayed data uncertainty. The full impact of the delayed PCE and jobs reports on market expectations remains to be seen.