Barron’s 2025 Worst S&P 500 Stocks Report: Analysis and Chipotle (CMG) Turnaround Potential

This analysis draws from a Barron’s article [1] published on December 1, 2025, which reported that the 12 worst-performing stocks in the S&P 500 had declined by an average of 50% year-to-date (YTD) as of December 1 trading, despite the overall market having a strong year. The article’s URL includes “chipotle-growth”, strongly implying Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) is a featured stock. CMG’s YTD return stands at -42.83% [0], driven by a 0.8% drop in Q3 2025 foot traffic attributed to inflationary pressures impacting young and lower-income consumers (CMG’s core customer base) [0]. However, analyst consensus remains bullish: 69.7% of analysts rate CMG as Buy, with a consensus price target of $45.00, representing a 31.4% upside potential [0]. The article’s framing could influence short-term volatility for CMG: if positioned as the turnaround candidate, it may see a relief rally; if highlighting ongoing challenges, further selling pressure could occur.

1. Market Divergence
   : The 50% average decline among the 12 worst S&P 500 stocks contrasts with the overall market’s strong performance, indicating a significant divergence between leading and lagging growth stocks in 2025.
2. CMG’s Vulnerable Customer Base
   : The company’s reliance on young and lower-income consumers makes it disproportionately sensitive to inflation and rate volatility, which has directly impacted foot traffic.
3. Analyst Optimism vs. Recent Performance
   : Despite CMG’s steep YTD decline, the high percentage of Buy ratings and substantial upside target suggest analysts see underlying potential for a turnaround.

• Risks
  :
  • For CMG: Continued inflation and rate hikes could further suppress foot traffic from its core customer segment; operational challenges under CEO Scott Boatwright require monitoring [0].
  • For the market: The concentrated decline in 12 S&P 500 stocks may signal broader downside risks in overvalued growth segments.
• Opportunities
  :
  • For CMG: A successful turnaround (if the Barron’s article positions it as such) could unlock the 31.4% upside identified by analysts.
  • For investors: The report may highlight undervalued stocks with turnaround potential, though full details are currently unavailable.

The Barron’s report (December 1, 2025) identifies 12 S&P 500 stocks with an average 50% YTD decline. Chipotle (CMG) is strongly implied to be featured, with a -42.83% YTD return driven by inflation-related foot traffic drops. Analysts maintain a Buy consensus with a 31.4% upside target. Critical information gaps include the full list of 12 stocks, their specific decline drivers, and explicit confirmation of CMG as the turnaround candidate. Investors should monitor CMG’s foot traffic trends and sector performance (consumer discretionary) for further clarity.