Black Friday 2025 Online Spending Record ($11.8B) and Market Reactions

On November 29, 2025, Adobe Analytics reported via TechCrunch [1] that U.S. consumers spent a record $11.8 billion online on Black Friday, representing 9.1% year-over-year (YoY) growth from 2024’s $10.8 billion (a slight deceleration from 2024’s 10.2% growth) [2]. The announcement was made on a Saturday, when U.S. markets were closed, so market reactions were first observed on the following trading day, December 1, 2025:

• Stock Performance
  : Amazon (AMZN) closed up 0.94%, Walmart (WMT) closed up 0.90%, and the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) rose 1.18% [0], reflecting broad retail sector strength. In contrast, Shopify (SHOP) closed down 2.30% with a further 5.90% after-hours drop—performance unrelated to the Black Friday sales report, but instead driven by a Cyber Monday outage affecting its platform [6][7].
• Sector Performance
  : The Consumer Cyclical sector (encompassing e-commerce and retail) gained 0.57%, outperforming sectors like Consumer Defensive (-0.06%) and Energy (-0.17%) [0].

Key trends underlying the sales record include:

• Mobile dominance: 80.7% of online sales were conducted via mobile devices [2].
• BNPL growth: BNPL spending increased 8.9% YoY, contributing $747.5 million (6.3% of total sales) [2].
• AI impact: AI traffic to retail websites surged 805% YoY, with AI-driven visitors showing a 38% higher conversion rate [3].
  Adobe also forecasts Cyber Monday 2025 online sales to reach $14.2 billion (20% above Black Friday) and total holiday season sales to hit $253.4 billion (the first quarter-trillion-dollar holiday season) [4].

1. Sustained digital adoption amid modest growth slowdown
   : The 9.1% YoY growth, while slightly lower than 2024, indicates ongoing consumer confidence in online shopping and continued digital adoption [2].
2. AI emerges as a critical retail driver
   : The significant increase in AI traffic and its higher conversion rate highlight AI’s growing role in shaping retail outcomes, suggesting AI investments could become a competitive differentiator [3].
3. Platform reliability risks decouple individual stock performance from sector trends
   : Shopify’s outage demonstrates how operational issues can overshadow broad sector strength, emphasizing the importance of platform stability for tech-enabled retail providers [6][7].
4. Holiday season momentum is positive but not guaranteed
   : The Black Friday record and strong November 1-28 growth (7.1% YoY) [5] set a positive tone, but external factors like supply chain disruptions remain potential headwinds [5].

• Front-loading risk
  : Strong Black Friday sales could lead to softer Cyber Monday or post-holiday spending, potentially impacting full-quarter retail results [2].
• Margin pressure
  : Competitive discounting (electronics discounts peaked at 29% in 2025 vs. 30.1% in 2024) [3] could compress retailer margins, especially if costs rise alongside sales volume.
• Shopify outage repercussions
  : The Cyber Monday outage may result in merchant churn or reduced fees for Shopify if perceived as a systemic failure, affecting long-term revenue [6][7].
• Holiday season uncertainty
  : External factors like economic volatility or supply chain issues could still disrupt the remaining holiday shopping period [5].

• AI investment opportunities
  : Retailers and tech providers investing in AI-driven customer acquisition could capture higher conversion rates [3].
• BNPL expansion
  : Sustained BNPL growth may benefit providers in the space as consumer adoption increases [2].
• E-commerce infrastructure demand
  : Rising online spending could drive demand for digital retail infrastructure and platform solutions [4].

The 2025 Black Friday online spending record of $11.8 billion reflects ongoing digital shopping adoption and consumer confidence, with major retailers and the retail sector showing positive performance on December 1, 2025. Key trends include mobile dominance, BNPL growth, and the increasing impact of AI. However, Shopify’s unrelated outage, risks of sales front-loading, and margin pressure warrant attention. Information gaps include a lack of retailer-specific performance breakdowns and data on margin impacts, which are important for a more granular assessment.