2025 Record Black Friday Spending: Analysis of Kevin Hassett’s Policy Attribution Claims

Based on a Fox Business article [1] published December 1, 2025, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett attributed record Black Friday and holiday spending to increased incomes and lower inflation under the Trump administration. Hassett’s comments countered an Atlantic article criticizing the administration’s policies for raising holiday costs for U.S. families.

Verified spending data includes Black Friday 2025 online sales of $11.8 billion (a 9.1% year-over-year increase) confirmed by Adobe Analytics and reported by major outlets [2][3][4]. Cyber Monday online sales are projected to reach $14.2 billion (up 6.3% YoY), driven by strong demand for electronics, toys, and apparel [4]. A Deloitte survey [1] found 82% of consumers planned to shop between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday (a 3% YoY increase), but average planned spending per shopper declined 4% to $622, suggesting price sensitivity despite overall spending growth.

Hassett claimed personal incomes increased $1,500 per person under Trump (compared to a $3,000 decline under Biden) and inflation fell to ~2.5% (from 5–10% under Biden). While BLS data shows real average hourly earnings rose 0.8% YoY through September 2025 [5], full 2025 personal income per capita data is unavailable. Inflation under the Biden administration peaked at 9.1% in June 2022 [7][8][9], aligning with Hassett’s historical range, but official November 2025 CPI data is delayed until December 18, 2025, due to a government shutdown [10]. The Cleveland Fed’s 10-year inflation expectation (2.29%) [11] is consistent with Hassett’s ~2.5% claim, though this is a forward-looking metric, not real-time inflation.

1. E-commerce Trend Continuity
   : The 9.1% YoY increase in Black Friday online sales continues a long-term shift toward digital holiday shopping, reflecting evolving consumer behavior [0][4].
2. Consumer Behavior Nuance
   : The combination of rising total spending and declining average per-shopper spending indicates consumers may be prioritizing deals and budget-conscious choices [1].
3. Political Messaging Timing
   : Hassett’s comments coincide with the holiday shopping season, framing strong economic data as an administration success amid potential election-related messaging [1].
4. Data Delays Impact Analysis
   : The government shutdown’s disruption of BLS data releases limits real-time verification of policy-impact claims [10].

1. Incomplete Data Verification
   : Delayed BLS inflation and income data could lead to unsubstantiated policy claims, creating potential for conflicting narratives once official data is released [10].
2. Retail Sector Disparity
   : While e-commerce retailers may benefit from record online sales, in-person retailers could face challenges, as implied by Gizmodo’s mention of slumping in-person sales [3].

1. E-commerce Growth Tailwinds
   : Companies with strong digital channels stand to gain from Q4 earnings boosts due to record online holiday spending [3][4].
2. Policy Discussion Catalyst
   : The spending data and accompanying claims may prompt deeper analysis of economic policies’ impact on consumer behavior and holiday spending trends [1].

• Verified Data
  : Black Friday 2025 online sales reached a record $11.8 billion (9.1% YoY); Cyber Monday is projected to hit $14.2 billion [2][3][4].
• Claims Under Scrutiny
  : Hassett’s income and inflation claims are partially supported by historical inflation peaks and forward-looking inflation expectations, but full verification awaits delayed BLS data [5][7][8][9][10][11].
• Consumer Behavior
  : Rising total spending alongside declining average per-shopper spending suggests consumers remain budget-conscious [1].
• External Factors
  : A government shutdown delayed critical economic data releases, impacting real-time analysis of the claims [10].