US Market Week-Ahead Preview (Dec 1-5, 2025): Fed Policy and Earnings Catalysts

Last week, major US indices posted gains, with the Russell 2000 leading (+3.2%), followed by the S&P 500 (+2.1%), Nasdaq (+1.8%), and Dow Jones (+1.5%) [0]. However, pre-market futures for December 1 show declines (S&P 500 futures -0.4%, Nasdaq -0.6%) amid geopolitical caution (China economic slowdown concerns, Venezuela sanctions tensions) and anticipation of Monday’s catalysts [0].

Monday’s key events include the ISM Manufacturing Index (expected to hold steady at 48.5) and JOLTS Job Openings (forecast 9.3 million), which will provide insights into the labor market and manufacturing sector health—critical for Fed policy decisions [0]. Fed Chair Powell’s 10 AM ET speech will be closely monitored for signals on potential 2026 rate cuts, as investors seek clarity on the central bank’s inflation-fighting path [0].

Week-ahead earnings from MongoDB (MDB, Tuesday), CrowdStrike (CRWD, Wednesday), and Salesforce (CRM, Wednesday) will highlight enterprise AI spending trends, a key growth driver for tech sectors in 2025-2026 [0]. Friday’s core PCE Price Index (expected +0.2% month-over-month), the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, will be the most impactful weekly data point for shaping market expectations [0].

1. Fed Chair Powell’s remarks will likely act as a short-term market catalyst, with hawkish tones potentially tempering rally hopes and dovish signals supporting year-end gains.
2. The core PCE data on Friday could confirm or disrupt easing inflation narratives, which have been central to recent market optimism.
3. Earnings from AI-focused tech firms (MDB, CRWD, CRM) will provide real-time insights into enterprise AI adoption rates, a critical metric for long-term tech sector valuations.
4. Geopolitical risks (China slowdown, energy market tensions) remain underappreciated but could create volatility, especially in energy and global tech sectors.

Hawkish Fed communication, above-forecast PCE inflation, and escalating geopolitical tensions could trigger short-term market pulls [0].
Dovish Fed signals, strong AI earnings reports, and a positive PCE reading could reinforce “Santa Rally” momentum, particularly in tech and small-cap sectors [0].

Last week’s gains reflect building investor optimism, but pre-market caution indicates uncertainty ahead of Monday’s catalysts. Key events to monitor include Powell’s speech, ISM/JOLTS data (Monday), tech earnings (Tuesday-Wednesday), and core PCE data (Friday). This week’s developments will provide critical clarity on Fed policy and AI sector trends, shaping market direction through year-end [0].