Grim US Retail Sales Data & Market Reaction Analysis

A Reddit post (2025-11-25) highlighted concerns about the US economy: September retail sales rose 0.2% MoM (missed expectations) [0], consumer confidence dropped to88.7 (6.8-point decline) [1], unemployment reached 4-year high of4.4% [2], wholesale inflation rose2.7% YoY [3], and Black Friday sales were underwhelming (in-store traffic down3.6% YoY) [4].

Despite negative indicators, markets rallied: S&P500 (+3.59%), Dow (+4.04%), Nasdaq (+3.89%) [5]. Defensive sectors led (Energy +1.13%) [6]. Retail stocks: AMZN (+8.70%), WMT (+3.12%), TGT (+0.69%) [7]. Fed rate cut expectations (83-84.9% chance of Dec cut) drove the rally [8].

• Consumer Confidence Expectations Index (63.2) below80 (10 months) — recession signal [1].
• Black Friday online sales up9.1% but driven by price hikes (7% YoY) not volume [4].
• Spending concentrated among top10% earners (48% of total) [4].

• Delayed October retail sales/November unemployment data [9].
• No regional variations in economic metrics.

• Recession risk from consumer confidence index [1].
• Labor market weakness (4.4% unemployment) [2].
• Market rally dependent on Fed rate cuts; no cut could trigger correction [8].

: This report is for informational purposes only; not investment advice.