AI Spending Offsets Tariff Shocks: Global Growth Forecasts Revised Upward

AI-related spending is emerging as a significant counterweight to tariff-induced slowdowns, leading economists to revise global growth forecasts upward [7]. Taiwan’s GDP was revised to a 15-year high of 3.9% due to AI demand [1], while the Q4 2025 Global Macroeconomic Outlook raised global growth by 0.2pp to 2.62% [3]. The WTO upgraded merchandise trade growth from -0.2% to 2.4% citing AI-related goods demand [3]. The semiconductor sector (e.g., TSM) benefits from this trend, with TSM projecting $3-4T in global data center spending by 2030 [2]. AI contributed over 80% of U.S. domestic demand growth in H1 2025 [4], offsetting weaker sectors and benefiting Asian semiconductor producers [5]. Tariff drag (1% in 2025) is expected to fade, with AI infrastructure becoming the primary U.S. growth driver in 2026 [6].

1. Cross-domain Linkage
   : AI supply chains (Taiwan semiconductors) directly support U.S. AI investment, creating a mutually beneficial regional dynamic [1][5].
2. Policy & Growth Shift
   : The fading tariff impact and rising AI contribution may lead governments to prioritize AI infrastructure investment [6].
3. Sectoral Dominance
   : AI-related spending now dominates U.S. domestic demand growth, signaling a structural shift in economic drivers [4].

• Opportunities
  : Semiconductors and data center infrastructure are poised for long-term growth (TSM’s $3-4T projection [2]). The U.S. and Asia Pacific regions are key beneficiaries [3][5].
• Risks
  : Potential AI bubbles, missing details on specific tariff measures and economist forecasts [7], limited data on emerging market impacts, and uncertainty about AI spending sustainability.

• Taiwan’s 2025 GDP: 3.9% (15-year high, AI-driven [1]).
• Global growth upgrade: +0.2pp to 2.62% (2025 [3]).
• AI’s U.S. demand contribution: Over 80% in H1 2025 [4].
• TSM’s data center projection: $3-4T by 2030 [2].
• Tariff drag: 1% in 2025, fading in 2026 [6].