Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) Analysis and Hong Kong Stock Market Dynamics Review

This analysis is based on the hot list information provided by Tushare dc_hot, focusing on the operating status of Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) and related Hong Kong stock market dynamics [0]. As a leading Hong Kong jewelry retailer, Chow Tai Fook’s interim net profit in 2025 increased slightly but revenue declined, while facing cost pressure from China’s new gold tax policy; the scale of the Hong Kong IPO market has grown significantly, and new stocks performed actively on their first day of listing.

Chow Tai Fook achieved a net profit of HK$2.534 billion in the first half of FY2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.13%, and revenue of HK$39 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1% [5]. Management raised the FY2026 gross margin guidance to 31%-32% and operating margin to 18%-19%, indicating expectations of improved profitability [7]. Multiple brokers gave positive reviews: Daiwa raised the target price to HK$18 [6], and Bank of America Securities raised it to HK$17.6 [7].

China implemented a new gold tax policy in November 2025, reducing the VAT deduction rate for jewelry merchants’ gold purchases from 13% to 6%, which may push up industry costs [9]. This policy poses challenges to the profit margins of leading enterprises like Chow Tai Fook.

The scale of Hong Kong IPOs in 2025 increased by 232% year-on-year, with Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs remaining dominant in underwriting [2]. The average increase of new stocks on their first day of listing in November reached 32%, indicating active market demand for new stocks [4]. In addition, Seres (09927.HK) was included in the Stock Connect targets [1], and Airwallex Group (06639.HK) was suspended due to delayed release of interim results [3], reflecting the differentiation of individual stock performance in the market.

1. Policy and Leading Enterprise Interaction
   : The new gold tax policy brings cost pressure to the industry as a whole, but leading enterprises like Chow Tai Fook may be relatively risk-resistant due to scale advantages and broker support.
2. Obvious Market Differentiation
   : The overall growth of the Hong Kong IPO market contrasts with the suspension of individual stocks (such as Airwallex Group), showing structural differences in the market.
3. Contradiction in Financial Indicators
   : Chow Tai Fook’s net profit increased slightly but revenue declined, reflecting the company’s challenge in balancing cost control and business expansion.

• Tax Policy Impact
  : The reduction in VAT deduction rate will directly increase procurement costs, possibly squeezing profits [9].
• Revenue Growth Pressure
  : Revenue decreased by 1% year-on-year in the first half, indicating insufficient business growth momentum [5].

• Broker Optimism
  : Multiple international brokers raised the target price, showing confidence in the company’s long-term prospects [6][7].
• Profit Margin Improvement
  : Management raised the profit margin guidance; if achieved, it will enhance the company’s profitability [7].

• Chow Tai Fook’s 2025 interim net profit: HK$2.534 billion (+0.13%), revenue: HK$39 billion (-1%) [5].
• China’s new gold tax policy: VAT deduction rate reduced from 13% to 6% [9].
• Broker target prices: Daiwa HK$18, Bank of America Securities HK$17.6 [6][7].
• Hong Kong IPO scale increased by 232% year-on-year; average increase of new stocks on first day of listing in November was 32% [2][4].