Weekly Market Overview: Santa Rally Prospects & Central Bank Policy Uncertainty (Nov 30, 2025)

: This analysis provides information gathering and market context to support decision-making. It is NOT investment advice, trading recommendations, or financial guidance. The goal is to present factual information, market context, and risk identification to help users make informed decisions.

The week ahead is defined by intense anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s December 9–10 policy meeting, where markets price an 86.4% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut. Historical Santa Rally trends (79% probability of positive returns in the year-end window) add to bullish sentiment, but Fed policy uncertainty, the European Central Bank’s December 18 meeting, and delayed US jobs data (released post-Fed meeting) loom as key risks.

Over the past 30 trading days (October 17–November 28):

• S&P 500
  : +3.59% ($6611.90 → $6849.08) with a 20-day moving average of $6745.85
• NASDAQ Composite
  : +3.89% ($22489.81 → $23365.69)
• Dow Jones Industrial
  : +4.04% ($45862.37 → $47716.43)
  [0]

• Top Performer
  : Energy (+1.13557%)
• Worst Performer
  : Healthcare (-0.02978%)
  [0]

Markets assign an

of a 25bps rate cut, driven by cooling labor market signs and calls from institutions like JPMorgan Chase (which urged an immediate cut to address economic slowdown risks). Fed officials are divided: New York Fed President John Williams and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daley have voiced openness to cuts, while Chair Jerome Powell’s October comments leaned hawkish.
Critical note: The November jobs report (scheduled for December 16) will be released the Fed meeting, leaving policymakers without key labor data to inform their decision.
[1][2][3][5][6]

Consensus expects the ECB to hold its deposit facility rate at 2.00% amid fragile Eurozone growth (Q3 GDP +0.2% QoQ) and persistent inflationary pressures (services inflation at 3.4% in October). The meeting will include updated 2028 inflation projections, which may influence future policy direction.
[3][4]

Historical data shows the S&P 500 delivers positive returns in the

(last 5 trading days of December + first 2 of January) 79% of the time since 1950, with an average gain of 1.3%. A failed Santa Rally (e.g., 1999, 2007) has historically preceded significant market downturns.
[4]

While specific stock-level data is limited, sector-level trends highlight:

• Energy
  : Outperformance driven by rate cut expectations (lower rates boost commodity demand) and supply-side stability.
• Healthcare
  : Underperformance likely due to profit-taking after recent gains and concerns over regulatory scrutiny (per Seeking Alpha’s weekly healthcare headlines).
  [0][6]

• December 9–10
  : Federal Reserve policy meeting
• December 16
  : US November jobs report (delayed due to government shutdown)
• December 18
  : European Central Bank policy meeting

• S&P 500
  : Support at 20-day moving average ($6745.85) and resistance at recent high ($6920.34)
  [0]

• Fed surprises with no rate cut (contrary to market expectations)
• ECB signals earlier-than-expected rate hikes
• Santa Rally fails (historical precursor to downturns)
  [4][5]

[0] Ginlix Analytical Database
[1] Bitget - Federal Reserve December Rate Cut Probability
[2] Chronicle Journal - JPMorgan Urges December Fed Rate Cut
[3] Oanda - December Central Bank Meetings Outlook
[4] Investopedia - Santa Claus Rally Explained
[5] ABC News - Fed Divided Over Rate Cuts
[6] Investopedia - Fed Meeting Delay Debate
[7] Seeking Alpha - Healthcare Headlines

: All data is as of November 30, 2025, and subject to change. This report does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct independent research before making financial decisions.