FOX Business Weekly Recap Analysis: National Guard Attack, Tariff Policy, and U.S. Economic Indicators (Nov 29, 2025)

This report analyzes the FOX Business weekly recap video (published Nov 29, 2025) covering three key topics:

1. The deadly targeted shooting of National Guard members near the White House
2. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s comments on Trump’s tariff policy and proposed $2000 dividend checks
3. Recent U.S. economic indicators and trends

The analysis leverages verified data from credible sources (ABC News, Reuters, FOX Business, etc.) to contextualize and assess the impact of these events.

• Two West Virginia National Guard members were shot in a “targeted ambush” near Farragut Square (blocks from the White House) on Nov 26, 2025 [3].
• One soldier (Spc. Sarah Beckstrom) died on Nov 28; the second (Andrew Wolfe) remains in critical condition [4,5].
• Suspect identified as 29-year-old Rahmanullah Lakanwal (Afghan national) [2].
• The White House was briefly locked down; FBI leads the investigation [2,5].

• Lutnick expects the Supreme Court to uphold Trump’s tariff policy [8].
• Trump proposes a $2000 dividend from tariff revenue to low/middle-income Americans (payout expected mid-2026) [7,8].
• Fiscal 2025 tariff revenue reached $215.2 billion [8].
• CBO revised its 10-year deficit reduction estimate from $4 trillion to $3 trillion (due to lower projected tariff revenue) [9].

• Nov 2025 Manufacturing PMI: 51.9 (down from Oct’s 52.5, but still expanding) [11].
• Nov Consumer Sentiment Index:51.0 (down from Oct’s53.6; current conditions index fell 12.8%) [11].
• Initial jobless claims (Nov15):220k (down 8k week-over-week) [11].
• Continued jobless claims (Nov8):1.974 million (highest since 2021) [11].

The attack was a premeditated ambush: witnesses reported the suspect “came around the corner and immediately started firing” [5]. President Trump called it an “act of evil” [2]. The suspect’s Afghan nationality may fuel political debates on immigration and national security [2]. The incident occurred amid 2100 National Guard members deployed in DC as part of a federal law enforcement task force [4].

Lutnick’s confidence in the Supreme Court aligns with Trump’s aggressive trade strategy, which has increased tariff revenue since April’s “Liberation Day” tariffs [8]. The $2000 dividend plan is designed to showcase tangible benefits of tariffs to voters, but the CBO’s revised estimate raises questions about whether tariff revenue will be sufficient to fund both the dividend and debt reduction (Trump also plans to use excess revenue for $38 trillion debt paydown) [8,9].

Manufacturing growth slowed but remains positive, with employment in the sector rising at the fastest rate since August [11]. The sharp drop in consumer sentiment (driven by current conditions) contrasts with slightly improved expectations, indicating mixed views on the economy [11]. The labor market shows resilience (lower initial claims) but signs of stress (elevated continued claims) [11].

• Public Safety
  : May lead to stricter security measures for National Guard deployments in DC [4].
• Political
  : Could influence immigration policy debates (suspect’s nationality) and 2026 election rhetoric [2].

• Trade Relations
  : A Supreme Court win for Trump would solidify tariff policy, impacting relations with the EU (Lutnick is negotiating steel/aluminum deals) and China (tariff exemptions extended until 2026) [6,10].
• Economy
  : The dividend plan could boost consumer spending but risks inflation (USTR Jamieson Greer dismissed these concerns) [7].

• Market Outlook
  : Slowing manufacturing and weak consumer sentiment may lead to cautious investor behavior, but stable jobless claims could support market confidence [11].
• Policy
  : The Federal Reserve may consider these indicators when setting interest rates (inflation expectations fell to 4.5% in Nov) [11].

• Attack
  : Occurred on the eve of Thanksgiving; White House briefly locked down [2].
• Tariffs
  : Trump first announced the dividend plan on Nov9, 2025 [8].
• Economy
  : Nov inflation expectations (12-month) dropped from 4.6% to4.5% [11].

1. Attack
   : Exact motive of the suspect; any links to extremist groups [5].
2. Tariffs
   : Eligibility criteria for the $2000 dividend (income thresholds, household size) [7,8].
3. Economy
   : Latest GDP data (BEA rescheduled the 3rd quarter estimate release) [12].
4. Tariffs
   : Exact details of EU steel/aluminum trade negotiations [6].

[1] FOX Business: “‘AMERICAN POLICY’: Lutnick touts Trump’s tariffs and teases dividend checks | Recap” (Nov29,2025) URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TmVrf-8KMe4

[2] ABC News: “2 National Guard members remain in critical condition after ‘targeted shooting’ near White House” (Nov27,2025) URL: https://abcnews.go.com/US/2-national-guard-members-remain-critical-condition-after/story?id=127924182
[3] Reuters: “National Guard soldiers shot in ‘targeted’ attack near White House” (Nov26,2025) URL: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/two-national-guard-members-shot-washington-dhs-chief-says-2025-11-26/
[4] Al Jazeera: “Trump says one National Guard soldier shot near White House has died” (Nov28,2025) URL: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/11/28/trump-says-one-national-guard-soldier-shot-near-white-house-has-died
[5] BBC News: “Two National Guard members in critical condition after shooting …” URL: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3r7qpqddnro

[6] YouTube (Bloomberg Surveillance): “Lutnick Talks EU Tech Rules, Nvidia H200 Chips, SCOTUS Tariff” (Nov24,2025) URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x4RfWh-1oNk
[7] Facebook Post (I Support Donald Trump): “Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick expressed confidence that the …” (Nov25,2025) URL: https://www.facebook.com/isupportdonaldtrump/posts/commerce-secretary-howard-lutnick-expressed-confidence-that-the-trump-administra/1272805424872007/
[8] FOX Business: “Lutnick expects Supreme Court to side with Trump on tariffs …” URL: https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/lutnick-expects-supreme-court-side-trump-tariffs-opening-door-2000-payouts
[9] POLITICO: “Greer, Lutnick hustle in Brussels” (Nov24,2025) URL: https://www.politico.com/newsletters/weekly-trade/2025/11/24/greer-lutnick-hustle-in-brussels-00666554
[10] Yahoo Finance: “Trump tariffs live updates: US may cut income tax due to tariff revenue” (Nov28,2025) URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/trump-tariffs-live-updates-us-may-cut-income-tax-due-to-tariff-revenue-trump-says-xi-agreed-to-expand-farm-buys-231853739.html

[11] Financial Juice: “Week Ahead: Economic Indicators 1st -5th December (US)” (Nov28,2025) URL: https://features.financialjuice.com/2025/11/28/week-ahead-economic-indicators-1st-5th-december-us/
[12] BEA: “Economic Release Schedule Updates” (Nov24,2025) URL: https://www.bea.gov/news/blog/2025-11-24/economic-release-schedule-updates-0

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or political advice. All data is as of Nov29,2025.

: Lower-tier sources (e.g., Facebook post) are cited with caution; their claims should be verified against primary sources.
: Tier1 (ABC, Reuters, FOX Business, BEA) sources are prioritized; Tier3 (Facebook) sources are used only when no Tier1 source is available for specific details.