December 2025 Market Predictions & Megacap Performance Analysis

This analysis is based on the Seeking Alpha article [1] and internal market data [0]. Key findings include:

• Market Performance
  : S&P500 (+0.39%), NASDAQ (+0.32%), Dow (+0.40%) on Nov28 [0]. Energy sector led gains (+1.13%) while Tech lagged (+0.53%) [0].
• Megacap Divergence
  : MSFT (+0.90%) and AAPL (+0.56%) rose, while NVDA (-1.18%) and GOOGL (-0.99%) fell [0].
• AI-Related News
  : Michael Burry compared NVDA to Cisco (dot-com bubble) [2], and Google’s Gemini3 used TPUs instead of NVDA GPUs [3].

• AI Narrative Impact
  : Doubts on AI narrative correlated with NVDA/GOOGL declines and sector rotation to Energy.
• Megacap Leadership
  : MSFT/AAPL’s strength suggests resilience amid uncertainty, while NVDA/GOOGL face AI-specific headwinds.
• Sector Rotation
  : Energy’s outperformance signals investor shift to defensive/value assets.

• Risks
  : AI bubble concerns [2], NVDA’s competition from Google’s TPUs [3], sector rotation away from Tech.
• Opportunities
  : Energy sector strength, defensive stocks amid economic uncertainty.

• Market YTD gains: S&P500 (+16%), NASDAQ (+20%) [1].
• Mixed November performance with megacaps driving most gains [1].
• Key risks: AI infrastructure overinvestment, NVDA’s market share loss.
• No prescriptive recommendations are provided.