Market Analysis Report: Max Kettner's Earnings vs. Fed Decision Commentary (2025-11-28)

On November 28, 2025, Max Kettner, HSBC chief multi-asset strategist, stated in a Bloomberg interview that the December Federal Reserve interest rate decision will have minimal impact on risk assets. He emphasized corporate earnings as the critical driver of market performance over the next 2-3 months, arguing that whether a rate cut occurs in December or January will not significantly move equities, credit spreads, or the dollar [4][7]. The original event was published via a YouTube video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2JpkPoOes3Q) and later covered in a Bloomberg video transcript [7].

On the day of Kettner’s comments (November 28, 2025), U.S. equity indices showed mixed but generally positive performance, aligning with his focus on earnings over Fed policy:

• S&P 500
  : Closed at 6,834.54 (+0.18%)
• Dow Jones Industrial Average
  : Closed at 47,671.74 (+0.40%)
• NASDAQ Composite
  : Closed at 23,294.86 (+0.01%)
• Russell 2000
  : Closed at 2,498.55 (+0.26%) [0]

Sector performance reflected a rotation toward sectors with strong earnings expectations:

• Top-performing
  : Financial Services (+1.016%), Energy (+0.979%), Real Estate (+0.651%)
• Bottom-performing
  : Technology (-0.12%), Healthcare (-0.407%) [1]

The modest gains suggest investors are already prioritizing earnings over Fed policy, as Kettner predicted. Financials’ outperformance may reflect optimism about upcoming bank earnings, while tech’s slight decline could signal concerns about AI sector valuations [2].

1. Index Recovery
   : The S&P 500 has risen 1.03% over the past two trading days (November 25-28), recovering from a 2.96% drop on November 20 [0].
2. Sector Trends
   : Financials’ leading performance (+1.016% on Nov28) correlates with upcoming earnings releases from major banks (e.g., Royal Bank of Canada, National Bank of Canada) on December 3 [6][8].
3. Upcoming Earnings
   : Critical December earnings include:
   • Royal Bank of Canada (RY.TO): Q4 2025 (Dec3)
   • National Bank of Canada (NA.TO): Q4 2025 (Dec3)
   • Descartes Systems Group (DSG.TO): Q3 2026 (Dec3) [6][8]

These reports will test Kettner’s thesis that earnings drive market direction.

• Consensus Earnings Estimates
  : No data on Q4 2025 consensus earnings estimates for the S&P 500 or key sectors (tech, financials) was available, limiting validation of Kettner’s view.
• Analyst Alignment
  : It is unclear how many other analysts share Kettner’s perspective on Fed policy irrelevance—additional research into consensus views is needed.
• Earnings Quality
  : Upcoming reports need evaluation for revenue growth vs. cost-cutting and 2026 guidance to assess long-term impact.

Decision-makers should prioritize monitoring upcoming earnings over Fed statements in the short term, per Kettner’s advice.

1. Earnings Miss Risk
   : If upcoming financial or tech earnings miss estimates, the market could correct, as Kettner’s view hinges on strong earnings performance.
2. Fed Policy Surprise
   : A hawkish Fed decision (no rate cut + higher-for-longer signals) could disrupt risk assets despite Kettner’s downplaying.
3. Sector Weakness
   :
   • Technology
     : The sector’s -0.12% decline on Nov28 raises concerns about potential earnings misses for tech companies, a large component of major indices [1].
   • Healthcare
     : Underperformance (-0.407%) warrants monitoring for regulatory or cost-related issues [1].

• December 3 earnings releases (RY.TO, NA.TO, DSG.TO)
• Q4 2025 consensus earnings estimates for key sectors
• Other analysts’ views on Fed vs. earnings impact
• Tech sector earnings guidance for 2026

Users should be aware that earnings misses or unexpected Fed policy could significantly impact market performance in the coming weeks.

[0] get_market_indices tool output (US indices: ^GSPC, ^IXIC, ^DJI, ^RUT from 2025-11-14 to 2025-11-28)
[1] get_sector_performance tool output (2025-11-28)
[2] get_curated_news_tool output (10 news items, including Seeking Alpha’s AI stocks article)
[4] Bloomberg Video: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2025-11-28/will-the-december-fed-decision-matter-to-markets-video
[6] Yahoo Finance Earnings Calendar: https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/calendar/earnings?from=2025-12-02&to=2025-12-08&day=2025-12-03
[7] crawl_tool output of Bloomberg video transcript (URL as [4])
[8] crawl_tool output of Yahoo Finance Earnings Calendar (URL as [6])

This report provides market context and is not investment advice. Users should conduct independent research before making decisions.