Market Pause Amid Thanksgiving, Dovish Fed Repricing, and CME Outage

November 28, 2025

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Global equities paused during the US Thanksgiving holiday, with markets reflecting on dovish Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations (80% probability of a December cut) and a CME Group trading halt due to a cooling system malfunction. The US Dollar (USD) weakened 0.5% week-to-date (WTD), dipping below its 200-day moving average (SMA), while major peers like the Euro (EUR), British Pound (GBP), and Australian Dollar (AUD) gained. Next week’s economic calendar—including US ISM PMIs and delayed PCE data—will likely reignite volatility as investors reassess policy paths.

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• US Markets:
  Closed for Thanksgiving, so no trading activity [1].
• FX Markets:
  • USD Index fell 0.5% WTD, breaking below its 200-day SMA at 99.71 after reaching highs of 100.40 [1].
  • EUR/USD (+0.6% WTD), GBP/USD (+0.9% WTD), and AUD/USD (+1.1% WTD) benefited from USD weakness [1].
  • USD/JPY remained flat despite hotter-than-expected Japanese inflation [1].
• Japan:
  November Tokyo core CPI rose 2.8% (vs. 2.7% expected), but the Bank of Japan (BoJ) December hike probability stayed at ~50% [1].

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1. Dovish Fed Repricing:
   Investors priced in an ~80% chance of a 20bps December rate cut and cumulative easing of ~90bps by end-2026, weighing on the USD [1].
2. CME Trading Halt:
   A cooling system malfunction at a CME data center halted futures/options trading, reducing market liquidity and exacerbating the holiday lull [1].
3. Japanese Inflation Impact:
   Hotter CPI failed to boost BoJ hike odds, as the new Prime Minister (Takayichi) prioritizes fiscal policy over immediate monetary tightening [1].
4. USD Technical Break:
   The USD Index’s dip below its 200-day SMA (99.71) signaled potential further weakness, as technical traders reacted to the bearish crossover [1].

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• FX Pairs:
  EUR/USD (+0.6% WTD), GBP/USD (+0.9% WTD), AUD/USD (+1.1% WTD) were top gainers; USD/JPY was unchanged [1].
• No Major Equity Movers:
  US markets were closed, and global equities saw limited movement due to the holiday and CME outage [1].

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1. US:
   November ISM manufacturing/services PMIs, ADP employment data, delayed September PCE figures [1].
2. Europe:
   November flash CPI inflation [1].
3. Asia-Pacific:
   Australian Q3 GDP, Swiss November CPI, Canadian November jobs report [1].

• USD Index: 200-day SMA (99.71) as critical support/resistance [1].
• EUR/USD: Resistance at 1.1050 (near-term) amid Fed easing expectations [1].

• Policy uncertainty from central banks (Fed, BoJ) [1].
• Potential liquidity issues post-CME outage [1].

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This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research before making financial decisions.