Platinum Market Shift: 2026 Surplus Forecast and Impact Analysis

This analysis is based on the Forbes article [1] published on November28,2025, highlighting the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) forecast [2] of a shift from a692,000-ounce deficit in 2025 to a20,000-ounce surplus in 2026. Platinum prices have risen75% year-to-date [1], and the abrdn Physical Platinum Shares ETF (PPLT) closed at $144.94 on Nov28, up 2.54% from prior close [0]. The surplus is driven by a4% increase in total supply (10% from recycling) [2] and a projected52% drop in investment demand [3].

Cross-domain correlations include hybrid vehicle demand (using more platinum than ICE cars) potentially offsetting surplus risks [1]. The surplus size (20k oz) is small relative to the2025 deficit, and above-ground stockpiles have declined from5.5M oz (2022) to 3.2M oz now [1], limiting long-term impact [4].

Major risks: Supply disruptions in South Africa [4] and a52% drop in investment demand [3]. Opportunities: Accelerated hybrid adoption [1] and minimal surplus size limiting price pressure [4].

Key metrics:2025 deficit (-692k oz), 2026 surplus (+20k oz), platinum YTD +75% [1][2]. Affected instruments:PPLT, mining stocks (Valterra), automotive (hybrid manufacturers). Monitor WPIC updates, hybrid sales, and SA mining stability.