Baifu Holdings (01488.HK) Hot Analysis: Meet Fresh Noodles IPO Returns Coexist with High Debt Risk

Baifu Holdings (01488.HK) is a Hong Kong-listed company focusing on catering investment and operation,布局ing brands like Meet Fresh Noodles and Fook Kei Spicy Hot Pot through an investment + operation model [0]. The core driver for recently becoming a hot stock is Meet Fresh Noodles’ (02408.HK) IPO:招股 from November 27 to December 2, 2025, with an offering price of HK$5.64-7.04 and oversubscribed 12.13 times [1], Baifu as an early shareholder benefits directly [0].

Financial risks are significant: The asset-liability ratio in H1 2025 was 87.83%, far higher than the industry average of 50%-70% [0]. Stock price volatility is high; the closing price on November 20, 2025 was HK$0.53, a single-day drop of 10.169% [0]. Frequent shareholder sell-offs: The company sold 1.71% of Meet Fresh Noodles’ equity in August 2025 [0], and Wing Yee International also sold Baifu Holdings shares to realize HK$960,000 [3].

Meet Fresh Noodles’ performance is mixed: H1 2025 revenue was RMB 703 million (+33.8%), net profit RMB 41.834 million (+95.8%) [0], but there are issues of declining table turnover rate and pressure on consumption [8].

1. IPO and Shareholder Value Balance
   : Meet Fresh Noodles’ IPO oversubscription brings short-term valuation improvement, but early sell-offs weaken long-term profit potential [0,1]
2. High Debt Structural Risk
   : The 87.83% liability ratio limits investment capacity and risk resistance [0,9]
3. Sector Dividend Not Fully Released
   : Hong Kong catering sector’s total market value grew by 12.0% in 2024, outperforming A-shares, but Baifu’s individual risks (high debt, sell-offs) prevented it from benefiting [0]

• Main Risks
  :

1. Financial Pressure
   : High liability ratio may push up financing costs [0]
2. Stock Price Volatility
   : Single-day 10% drop and shareholder sell-offs increase uncertainty [3,5]
3. Target Risk
   : Meet Fresh Noodles’ declining table turnover rate affects long-term returns [8]

• Opportunity Window
  :

1. Short-term IPO Returns
   : The value of remaining equity after Meet Fresh Noodles’ listing is expected to rise [1]
2. Multi-brand Risk Diversification
   : Growth of brands like Fook Kei Spicy Hot Pot can alleviate reliance on a single target [0]

Baifu Holdings is short-term boosted by Meet Fresh Noodles’ IPO, but needs to pay attention to high debt, shareholder sell-offs, and investment target issues. Investors should comprehensively evaluate based on the IPO’s subsequent performance, financial status, and industry trends.