Chow Tai Fook (01929) Hot Stock Analysis: Performance, Policy Impact, and Market Outlook

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group (01929) is a well-known Asian jewelry retail group founded in 1929. Its main businesses include jewelry manufacturing and sales, as well as luxury watch agency, with approximately 3850 stores worldwide [0]. In 2025, the company’s stock price performed strongly, with a one-year increase of 148.81%, significantly rebounding from the 42.1% decline in 2024 [4]. However, the new gold tax policy implemented in November 2025 canceled the VAT deduction benefit, leading to an increase in procurement costs of about 7% [7]. The company quickly adjusted its strategy and raised prices of some gold products starting from December 3 to pass on the costs [6].

While policy changes bring short-term pressure, they also accelerate industry consolidation, benefiting leading enterprises [0]. Chow Tai Fook’s first-half performance of FY2026 was slightly below expectations, but it raised its second-half gross margin guidance to 31%-32%. Investment banks maintain positive ratings: Daiwa Securities raised the target price to HK$18 [2], and Morgan Stanley maintained the target price at HK$19 [0].

: If retail prices remain unchanged under the new tax policy, net profit in FY2026 may drop by 26% [0]; short-term stock price fluctuations intensify due to policy impacts [0].
: Under expectations of industry consolidation, the market share of leading brands is expected to increase [0]; the company’s dividend payout ratio and dividend per share ratio have increased, enhancing shareholder returns [0].

As a leader in the jewelry industry, Chow Tai Fook’s stock price performed brilliantly in 2025, but it needs to cope with cost pressures brought by the new gold tax policy. The company actively adjusts its product pricing strategy, investment banks maintain positive ratings, and the trend of industry consolidation brings structural opportunities for it. Investors should pay attention to the subsequent impact of the policy and the company’s cost control capabilities [0].