Post-Thanksgiving Market Outlook: Seasonal Strength vs. Policy & Consumer Uncertainty

November 26, 2025
Pre-Black Friday Analysis

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The U.S. stock market closed higher on November 26, with small caps (Russell 2000) leading gains (+1.43%) and Energy sector outperformance (+2.47%) [0]. Historical trends suggest post-Thanksgiving weeks are typically bullish (S&P 500 average +0.66% gain, 69% positive) [1], but uncertainty around Black Friday/Cyber Monday spending and Fed rate cut decisions may add volatility [4][6]. Key theme: Seasonal strength collides with short-term policy and consumer sentiment uncertainties.

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• S&P 500 (^GSPC):
  Closed at 6,827.47 (+0.5%) [0]
• Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC):
  23,262.78 (+0.43%) [0]
• Dow Jones Industrial (^DJI):
  47,512.96 (+0.67%) [0]
• Russell 2000 (^RUT):
  2,501.34 (+1.43%) [0]

• Leaders:
  Energy (+2.47%), Consumer Defensive (+1.41%), Financial Services (+1.32%) [0]
• Laggards:
  Technology (+0.31%), Consumer Cyclical (-0.295%—only down sector) [0]

Post-Thanksgiving weeks for the S&P 500 have averaged +0.66% (vs. +0.18% for typical weeks) with 69% positive outcomes since 1990 [1].

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The One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) Act (signed July 2025) includes tax cuts (SALT deduction cap raised to $40k) and business expensing increases [2]. While long-term bullish, its immediate post-Thanksgiving impact is indirect, but it may support consumer spending [2].

• Early Deals:
  Deep discounts (up to 80% at Wayfair, 60% at Macy’s) [3], but 36% of deals are not real discounts [4].
• Consumer Sentiment:
  NRF expects 2025 holiday sales to exceed $1T for the first time, but consumer anxiety persists [5].

Next Fed meeting: December 9–10. Market odds of a rate cut are 50/50 [6]. Key data points (Dec 16 jobs report, Dec18 CPI) will influence decisions [6].

• Bulls:
  CFRA’s Stovall (7,000 target, +4% gain from current levels) [7]; Yardeni (55% chance of 7,000) [8].
• Cautious:
  Goldman Sachs (6,800 target) [8].

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• Russell 2000:
  +1.43% outperformance vs. large caps, signaling small-cap strength [0].
• Energy Sector:
  +2.47% gain, likely driven by seasonal demand and commodity stability [0].
• Consumer Cyclical:
  -0.295% decline, reflecting caution ahead of retail spending data [0][4].

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• Black Friday (Nov28) & Cyber Monday (Dec1):
  Watch retail sales data for consumer sentiment signals [3][5].

• Fed Meeting (Dec9–10):
  Rate cut decision will shape market direction [6].
• Jobs Report (Dec16) & CPI (Dec18):
  Key inputs for Fed policy [6].

• S&P500 needs ~2.5% gain to hit 7,000 by year-end [7][8].

• Risks:
  Disappointing consumer spending, Fed no-cut scenario, AI sector volatility (Yardeni’s bearish odds up to30% [8]).
• Opportunities:
  Seasonal strength (historical post-Thanksgiving gains [1]), OBBB stimulus benefits [2].

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[0] Ginlix Analytical Database
[1] Yahoo Finance: Top Stocks to Watch After Thanksgiving Week
[2] Wikipedia: One Big Beautiful Bill Act
[3] Forbes: Best Early Black Friday Deals 2025
[4] CNBC: 36% of Black Friday Sales Aren’t Real Discounts
[5] Interactive Brokers: Retail Reality Check
[6] Fortune: December Fed Cut Uncertainty
[7] CNBC: CFRA’s Stovall Sees S&P500 at7400
[8] Yahoo Finance: Yardeni’s 7000 Target