Comprehensive Market Analysis Report: Upcoming Inflation Data & Retail Earnings

: The Week Ahead: Inflation Data, Retail Earnings on Deck
: Schaeffers Research [1]
: November 26, 2025

Key highlights from the event:

1. Economic Data Schedule
   : First week of December will feature critical delayed reports due to the October 1–November 12 government shutdown, including:
   • September personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index (Dec 5)
   • Import price index (Dec3)
   • Personal spending/income data (Dec5)
2. Earnings Reports
   : Major companies scheduled to report include Salesforce (CRM), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Dollar General (DG), Macy’s (M), and CrowdStrike (CRWD).
3. Cancelled/Delayed Reports
   : October jobs/inflation reports are cancelled; November jobs data is delayed.

• Sector Performance
  : Energy (+2.47%) led gains, while Consumer Cyclical (-0.29%) underperformed amid retail sector uncertainty [0].
• Stock Movements
  :
  • Salesforce (CRM): Down 2.72% to $227.75 (low volume: 6.03M vs. 8.98M avg) [0].
  • Ulta Beauty (ULTA): Up 3.47% to $539.09 (Black Friday deal momentum) [0, 2].
  • Dollar General (DG): Up4.54% to $109.05 (holiday traffic strength) [0, 4].

• Fed Policy Sensitivity
  : The September PCE data (Dec5) will shape rate-cut expectations—higher-than-expected inflation could delay Fed easing [1].
• Earnings Risk
  : Retail stocks (ULTA, DG) face headwinds from Consumer Cyclical sector weakness [0].
• Market Sentiment
  : Indices are up over 60 days (NASDAQ +8%, S&P500 +5.74%) but sentiment is cautious ahead of key data [1].

Metric	Value	Source
Top Sector Gain	Energy (+2.47%)	[0]
Worst Sector	Consumer Cyclical (-0.29%)	[0]
NASDAQ 60-Day Gain	+8.00%	[1]
S&P500 60-Day Gain	+5.74%	[1]

Stock	Price	Day Change	Market Cap	Source
CRM	$227.75	-2.72%	$218.07B	[0]
ULTA	$539.09	+3.47%	$24.17B	[0]
DG	$109.05	+4.54%	$24.00B	[0]

• CRM: Volume down 33% vs. average (6.03M vs.8.98M) indicating reduced investor interest [0].
• DG: Volume up 30% vs. average (1.99M vs.3.09M) amid holiday shopping optimism [0].

1. Consensus Estimates
   : No data on expected earnings for CRM, ULTA, DG or inflation (PCE) forecasts.
2. Shutdown Impact
   : Lack of detail on how the government shutdown affected retail supply chains or consumer spending.
3. Long-Term Trends
   : Missing 90-day performance data for affected stocks to contextualize recent moves.

• Positive
  : Discount retailers like DG benefit from holiday traffic (up 4.54% on Black Friday deals) [4].
• Neutral
  : Tech stocks like CRM face mixed sentiment (down 2.72% but NASDAQ up 8% over 60 days) [0,1].
• Negative
  : Consumer Cyclical sector weakness signals potential headwinds for retail earnings [0].

1. September PCE Data
   : Dec5 release will influence Fed rate policy [1].
2. Retail Earnings
   : ULTA (Dec1) and DG (Dec4) reports will test consumer spending resilience [1].
3. Sector Rotation
   : Watch for shifts from Energy to Consumer Cyclical if inflation data is favorable [0].

1. Volatility from Delayed Data
   : Outdated September PCE data may lead to overreactions in the market [1].
2. Earnings Miss Risk
   : Retail stocks (ULTA, DG) face pressure from Consumer Cyclical underperformance [0].
3. Fed Policy Uncertainty
   : Higher inflation could delay rate cuts, impacting growth stocks like CRM [1].

• “Users should be aware that delayed economic data releases (e.g., September PCE) may lead to increased market volatility in early December.”
• “This development raises concerns about Consumer Cyclical sector weakness that could impact retail earnings reports.”

[0] Ginlix Analytical Database (sector performance, real-time quotes)
[1] Schaeffers Research: The Week Ahead: Inflation Data, Retail Earnings on Deck
[2] WWD: 10 Editor-Tested Ulta Black Friday Deals That Are Actually Worth Your Time
[3] Yahoo Finance: Ulta Beauty Poised for Solid Fiscal Q3, Conservative Guidance Update
[4] Gurufocus: Dollar General (DG) Surges Amid Retail Sector Challenges
[5] Business Wire: Dollar General’s Jolly Good Deals Feature Black Friday Savings

Note: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
All data is as of November 26, 2025.