Market Analysis Report: Lehmann's AI Bullishness & Rate-Cut Expectations (2025-11-26)

On 2025-11-26 at 06:46 EST, Mark Lehmann (Vice Chair at Citizens Commercial Bank) appeared on “Money Movers” to discuss two key themes: (1) his belief that AI will drive market growth in 2026, and (2) expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut. The discussion was published on YouTube (URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JWArxjtBfNI).

Lehmann’s comments align with broader market sentiment, as US indices rose on 2025-11-26:

• S&P 500 (+0.38%), NASDAQ Composite (+0.24%), Dow Jones (+0.61%) [0].
• This upward movement was fueled by rate-cut hopes, with traders increasing positions in Fed futures targeting a December cut [7], and stocks rising ahead of Thanksgiving [2].

Sector performance reflected mixed reactions:

• Energy (+1.49%) led gains (rate-cut-driven economic optimism), while Technology (+0.31%) posted moderate growth [0].
• Lehmann’s bullish AI outlook aligns with institutional forecasts: HSBC and JPMorgan project the S&P 500 could reach 7,500 by end-2026, driven by AI capex spending [5][6]. However, the AI sector faces emerging challenges, with “euphoria giving way to tough questions” about sustainability [1].

AI-related stocks showed divergent performance on 2025-11-26:

• NVIDIA (NVDA)
  : +1.55% to $180.57 (market cap: $4.40T) [0]. While NVDA remains an AI chip leader, it faces competition from Google’s cheaper, less power-hungry Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) [3].
• Microsoft (MSFT)
  : +2.09% to $486.97 (market cap: $3.62T) [0]. Gains likely reflect optimism about Azure cloud AI services and rate-cut benefits for tech spending.
• Alphabet (GOOGL)
  : -1.50% to $318.59 (market cap: $3.84T) [0]. Decline stems from: (1) Google Gemini security vulnerability (data exfiltration via hidden prompts) [4], and (2) mixed reactions to its AI chip competition with NVDA [3].

• Directly Impacted Stocks
  : NVIDIA (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL) [0].
• Related Sectors
  : Technology (AI chips/cloud), Financial Services (rate-cut sensitive), Energy (economic optimism) [0].
• Supply Chain
  : Upstream (semiconductor manufacturers like TSMC), downstream (AI software providers, enterprise customers) [3].

• Lehmann’s specific AI growth projections (sector/company targets).
• Federal Reserve’s latest signals on December rate cuts (beyond market futures).
• Long-term impact of Google’s TPU competition on NVDA’s market share.

Lehmann’s bullish AI view aligns with institutional forecasts [5][6], but investors should balance this with:

• AI bubble risks (euphoria fading) [1].
• Emerging competition in AI chips (Google vs NVDA) [3].

• Fed meeting minutes (rate-cut clarity).
• NVDA’s customer retention (amid Google’s TPU push).
• Google’s response to the Gemini security vulnerability [4].

1. AI Sector Sustainability
   : The AI boom faces “tough questions” about overvaluation and long-term growth [1]. Users should be aware of potential corrections in AI stocks.
2. Competitive Risks
   : Google’s TPUs pose a threat to NVDA’s dominance; Meta’s potential shift to Google chips could impact NVDA’s revenue [3].
3. Security Risks
   : Google’s Gemini vulnerability raises concerns about AI-driven data breaches, which may affect enterprise adoption [4].
4. Rate-Cut Uncertainty
   : If the Fed does not cut rates in December, market sentiment could reverse, impacting AI and interest-sensitive sectors.

[0] Ginlix Analytical Database (get_market_indices, get_stock_realtime_quote, get_sector_performance, get_ticker_news_tool outputs)
[1] Yahoo Finance, “The AI boom hits a crossroads in 2026” (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ai-boom-hits-crossroads-2026-030812705.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall)
[2] Bloomberg, “US Stocks Rise as Rate-Cut Hopes Fuel Gain Before Thanksgiving” (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-26/us-stocks-rise-as-rate-cut-hopes-fuel-gain-before-thanksgiving)
[3] The Week, “Has Google burst the Nvidia bubble?” (https://theweek.com/tech/has-google-burst-the-nvidia-bubble)
[4] Webpronews, “Phantom Prompts and the Anti-Gravity Exploit: How Google Gemini Can Be Manipulated to Breach the Enterprise” (https://www.webpronews.com/phantom-prompts-and-the-anti-gravity-exploit-how-google-gemini-can-be-manipulated-to-breach-the-enterprise/)
[5] Yahoo Finance, “HSBC sees S&P 500 hitting 7,500 by end of 2026 with 'more to …” (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hsbc-sees-sp-500-hitting-7500-by-end-of-2026-with-more-to-come-in-the-ai-trade-110058536.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall)
[6] Yahoo Finance, “JPMorgan sees S&P 500 reaching 7,500 in 2026 — or surging …” (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-sees-sp-500-reaching-7500-in-2026--or-surging-past-8000-if-the-fed-keeps-cutting-rates-142602366.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall)
[7] Yahoo Finance, “Traders Crowd Into Fed Futures Targeting a December Rate Cut” (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/traders-crowd-fed-futures-targeting-102040175.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall)

: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct independent research before making financial decisions.