2025 Q3 Coal Industry Earnings Report and Market Insights: Balance Between Supply Constraints and Short-Term Demand

• According to [Thermal Coal Optimal Report]: In Q3 2025, the quarter-on-quarter growth rate of net profit attributable to parent companies of thermal coal enterprises was better than that of coking coal enterprises. The “anti-involution” policy of the National Energy Administration pushed up the Qinhuangdao Port 5500 kcal thermal coal FOB price.
• Research shows: There are obvious differences in the financial reports of coal listed companies. For example, China Shenhua’s Q3 revenue decreased by 12.6% year-on-year; Guanghui Energy’s first three quarters’ revenue decreased by 14.63% year-on-year; electricity coal consumption is expected to grow, and the number of imported coal may decrease year-on-year.

• Reddit user: The core logic of the coal industry is “demand rigidity under supply constraints”, which is worth paying attention to in the long term. However, demand was weak in Q3: the average price of thermal coal fell by 22.1%, coking coal by 32.5%, and the Q3 net profit of the coking coal sector decreased by 60.9% quarter-on-quarter.
• Snowball user: The large resource sector has the characteristic of permanent operation; the demand side of coal is relatively rigid. Companies with a high proportion of long-term agreement coal (such as Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal) have stable performance, while stocks with a high proportion of market coal have strong elasticity but large short-term declines.

Research and social media are consistent on the long-term logic of “demand rigidity under supply constraints”, but there are differences in short-term views—research points out that electricity coal consumption is expected to grow, while social media mentions weak demand in Q3. The performance stability of enterprises with a high proportion of long-term agreement coal (such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal Industry) is recognized by both sides; stocks with a high proportion of market coal have strong elasticity but large short-term fluctuations. From an investment perspective, in the long term, we can pay attention to the scarcity premium under supply constraints; in the short term, we need to be alert to the linkage risk between coking coal demand and the steel industry.