Analysis of Global Lithium Ore Supply in the Next Few Years (Upstream Resources Series for Energy Storage Cycle)

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• “According to Mining Technology: Global lithium ore production is expected to grow at a CAGR of 14.5% by 2030, with Argentina, Canada, Australia, and the US as key drivers.”
• “According to MINING.com: China’s battery-grade lithium carbonate production in 2024 increased by 45% year-on-year to 670,000 tons, and lithium hydroxide increased by 26% to 360,000 tons; Argentina’s lithium production target for 2025 is a 75% increase compared to 2024, mainly from new operations in Salta and expansions in Catamarca and Jujuy.”

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• “Reddit user: Global lithium ore supply will see concentrated capacity releases in China, Africa, and Argentina from 2025 to 2026, and increments across regions will generally slow down after 2027. This is because Australia has no large-scale new additions after 2027, and Chile has no increments from 2026 to 2028 due to government controls and capital expenditure restrictions.”
• “XUEQIU user (Zongfu Rongshu): It is expected that China will surpass Australia as the world’s largest lithium ore supplier in 2026. Capacity will be concentratedly released from 2025 to 2026, but growth will slow down after 2027; Chile will have no lithium ore resource increments from 2026 to 2028, and Brazil’s increments will be small in the short to medium term.”

: Research and social media views are consistent, pointing out the trend of rapid short-term (2025-2026) growth and slow long-term (after 2027) growth in global lithium ore supply, as well as the core driving roles of China and Argentina. Chile’s policy controls and Australia’s stagnant capital expenditure are the main reasons for long-term growth constraints. Regarding investment impact: short-term capacity releases may bring price pressure, but if long-term growth slowdown is combined with sustained demand growth (such as energy storage and electric vehicles), it may support a rebound in lithium prices. Investors should focus on the progress of core projects like Greenbushes CGP3 and 3Q, as well as the impact of changes in Chile’s mining policies on the supply chain.