New Bottle Old Wine vs. Old Bottle New Wine: Analysis of Investment Concepts and Industrial Applications

• According to research definitions: “New Bottle Old Wine” refers to using new packaging/platforms to carry mature asset businesses that lack new growth potential; “Old Bottle New Wine” refers to injecting new growth content through traditional carriers.
• Huachuang Securities points out that Moutai’s recent volume expansion relies on its old brewing system, which is a typical case of “Old Bottle New Wine” [2].
• Under the RWA wave, listed companies’ engagement in RWA has market value management value, but compliance risks need to be noted [3].
• Discussions related to Jensen Huang mention that “changing old wine into new bottles” requires enterprises to have execution capabilities and growth potential [1].

• Reddit user: Classifies real estate as “Old Bottle New Wine” (problems such as insufficient impairment provisioning and business model restructuring exist), and AI-related industries (semiconductors, optical modules) as “New Bottle Old Wine” (short-term supply-demand imbalance boosts prosperity but the business model remains unchanged).
• Xueqiu user (Ling Peng of Huangyuan Assets): The real estate industry faces issues such as Vanke’s huge losses and net asset shrinkage; PB is not systematically undervalued, and the business model will return to the construction industry. AI-related industries like semiconductors belong to “New Bottle Old Wine”, and attention should be paid to competitive barriers and safety margins (e.g., BOE Technology case) [4].

The research perspective and social media perspective are consistent in concept definitions, and social media further applies the concepts to specific industry cases. Both emphasize that investors need to distinguish the essence of industrial changes: For the real estate industry, which is “Old Bottle New Wine”, investors need to be alert to impairment risks and model transformation uncertainties; for AI-related industries, which are “New Bottle Old Wine”, investors need to avoid misjudging their strong cyclical and high capital expenditure nature due to short-term prosperity, and pay attention to competitive barriers and safety margins.