November 2025 Consumer Confidence Index Sharp Decline Analysis

The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) declined sharply to 88.7 in November 2025, a 6.8-point drop from October’s revised 95.5 and its lowest level since April [1]. This decline exceeded economists’ expectations of 93.4, reflecting widespread pessimism across current business conditions and future economic prospects [1]. Key drivers include a significant drop in perceptions of job availability (from 28.6% to 6% viewing jobs as “plentiful”) and reduced income growth expectations (15.3% expecting increases vs.18.2% in October) [1].

1. Dual Component Decline
   : Both current conditions and future expectations components of the CCI fell, indicating a broad-based loss of confidence rather than a temporary blip [1].
2. Job Market Alarm
   : The 22.6-percentage-point drop in consumers viewing jobs as “plentiful” suggests a sudden shift in job security fears, which often precedes reduced discretionary spending [1].
3. Holiday Season Impact
   : The decline coincides with the start of the holiday shopping season, where retail sales typically account for 20-30% of annual revenue for many businesses, raising concerns about Q4 retail performance [1].

• Economic Growth
  : Consumer spending drives ~70% of U.S. GDP; sustained low confidence could slow economic growth [1].
• Retail & Travel
  : Reduced spending plans on big-ticket items and travel may negatively impact retail, hospitality, and consumer discretionary sectors [1].
• Business Investment
  : Weaker demand expectations could lead businesses to delay hiring or expansion [1].

• Monetary Policy
  : The Federal Reserve may adopt a more dovish stance (e.g., pause rate hikes) to support economic growth, which could benefit interest-sensitive sectors [1].

The November 2025 CCI drop to 88.7 (lowest since April) signals growing consumer pessimism. Key metrics include:

• 15.9% of consumers expect business conditions to improve vs.27.7% expecting worsening conditions [1].
• 13.8% expect income decreases (up 2 percentage points from October) [1].
• Reduced spending plans on big-ticket items and travel [1].

This data provides critical context for understanding potential impacts on U.S. economic growth and sector performance in the coming months.