Analysis of Fed Rate Cut Expectations & Consumer Data Impact (Nov 25, 2025)

This analysis is based on the Nov 25 Reuters report [1] and internal market data [0]. Fed comments (Williams, Waller, Daly) drove rate cut expectations to 70% for Dec (up from25% a week prior). Key upcoming data: delayed Sept retail sales, PPI, consumer confidence. AI news: Amazon announced $15B Indiana data center + $50B US gov AI; Alphabet up premarket (Meta AI chip talks). Market indices: S&P500 up1.03% (6705.11), NASDAQ up1.73% (22872.01) (tech strength). Sector performance: utilities (+3.22% safe haven), tech (+2.08% AI), consumer defensive (-1.29% spending concerns). Stocks: AMZN up1.67% ($226.28), WMT down1.23% ($104.06), TGT down3.53% ($84.54).

• Cross-domain correlation: Tech strength (AI) vs consumer defensive weakness (spending concerns)
• Rate cut expectations boost both safe havens (utilities) and growth (tech)
• Amazon’s AI investments align with market sentiment (outperformed retail peers)

• Rate cut disappointment if economic data exceeds expectations
• Consumer spending underperformance (retail sector weakness)

• AI sector growth (Amazon, Alphabet)
• Safe haven utilities amid volatility

• Indices: S&P500 (6705.11), NASDAQ (22872.01)
• Sectors: utilities (+3.22% top), consumer defensive (-1.29% worst)
• Stocks: AMZN ($226.28 +1.67%), WMT ($104.06 -1.23%), TGT ($84.54 -3.53%)
• AI investments: Amazon $15B data center, Alphabet-Meta chip talks