01918.HK (Sunac China) Hot Stock Analysis: Debt Restructuring and Policy Dividends Drive Market Attention

This analysis is based on the hot event from Tushare dc_hot (East Money App Hong Kong Stock Popularity List) [0]. Sunac China (01918.HK) has recently become a focus in the Hong Kong stock market, mainly due to significant breakthroughs in its overseas debt restructuring (98.5% of creditors supported the USD 79.6 billion restructuring plan [0][3]), continued easing of China’s real estate policies [5], and stock price rebound (38.7% year-to-date increase [0]). Meanwhile, the stock was included in S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Hong Kong Stock Short Selling Ranking [1], reflecting market divergence. Although the loss narrowed to RMB 12.81 billion [0], the expectation of industry downturn [4] still poses potential pressure.

Sunac China’s popularity stems from the dual logic of financial improvement and policy support. The high approval rate of debt restructuring marks a financial turning point [3], alleviating the liquidity crisis; while the regulators’ policies to stabilize the market [5] provide a foundation for industry recovery. In terms of stock price performance, the 38.7% year-to-date increase outperforms the broader market [0], but inclusion in the short-selling list indicates that some investors doubt the sustainability of the rebound [1]. In terms of financial data, leveraged free cash flow reached RMB 16.71 billion [0], liquidity has improved, but losses have not yet turned positive.

1. Restructuring Catalytic Effect
   : The 98.5% creditor approval rate [3] has boosted market confidence in the company’s solvency, paving the way for subsequent financing.
2. Policy Sensitivity
   : The stock price is highly correlated with real estate policies [5], and future policy trends will be a core variable.
3. Opportunities Amid Divergence
   : The existence of the short-selling list ([1]) brings both volatility risks and entry windows for contrarian investors.
4. Valuation Potential
   : The current stock price (HKD 1.41 [0]) is at a 52-week low; if performance continues to improve, there is significant potential for valuation recovery [2].

• Industry Downturn: Fitch predicts that the real estate downturn will continue in 2025 [4], affecting sales and profits.
• Debt Pressure: Remaining debt after restructuring still needs to be repaid, and cash flow pressure persists [0].
• Increased Volatility: Short-selling activities may lead to significant stock price fluctuations [1].

• Policy Dividends: Further easing policies may boost sales and stock prices [5].
• Turnaround Potential: Effective execution of the restructuring plan can attract long-term investors [3].
• Valuation Recovery: Low stock prices provide room for valuation improvement after performance enhancement [2].

The market popularity of Sunac China (01918.HK) reflects investors’ expectations for its transformation prospects. Debt restructuring and policy support are short-term driving factors, but industry downturn and debt burden remain long-term challenges. Investors should rationally evaluate investment value by combining policy trends, restructuring execution progress, and industry trends.