Thanksgiving Week Bullish Momentum & Year-End Rally Survival Analysis

This analysis draws from a SeekingAlpha article [4] highlighting Thanksgiving week’s historical bullish momentum, +6% YoY early holiday spending, strong high-end consumer activity, AI-driven S&P500 earnings, and positive 2026 forecasts. On 2025-11-24, U.S. indices showed broad gains: S&P500 (+0.75%), NASDAQ (+1.12%), Dow (+0.34%) [0]. The SPY ETF (tracking S&P500) closed up +0.67% [3]. Sector performance was led by Tech (+2.03%)—aligning with AI earnings narrative—followed by Consumer Cyclical (+1.48%) (supporting holiday spending) [1]. Curated news confirmed Tech as the primary driver of gains [2]. Volatility trends include a -3.03% SPY drop on Nov20, followed by recovery [3]. Thanksgiving week’s low volume (SPY volume 21.03M, 83% lower than Nov21) [3] context amplifies price movement risks.

Cross-domain connections: Tech’s outperformance reflects investor confidence in AI’s long-term growth, while Consumer Cyclical gains validate holiday spending expectations. The shift from Consumer Defensive (-0.95%) to Cyclical suggests a move toward discretionary spending [1]. Low volume during Thanksgiving week indicates reduced market participation, which may limit the rally’s sustainability despite short-term gains.

• Volatility Risk
  : Recent SPY drop (-3.03% on Nov20) shows market sensitivity to news; prepare for sudden swings [3]
• Low Volume Risk
  : Reduced trading activity may lead to exaggerated price changes [3]
• Sector Concentration Risk
  : Overexposure to Tech (leading the rally) exposes portfolios to sector-specific shocks [1]

• Potential upside in Tech and Consumer Cyclical sectors if AI earnings and holiday spending trends continue into year-end

• Upcoming holiday sales reports from major retailers
• AI sector earnings updates for Q4 2025
• Federal Reserve policy announcements
• Post-holiday volume trends

• Indices
  : S&P500 (6,686.33, +0.75%), NASDAQ (22,733.35, +1.12%), Dow (+0.34%) [0]
• ETF
  : SPY ($667.15, +0.67%, volume:21.03M) [3]
• Sectors
  : Top (Tech +2.03%, Consumer Cyclical +1.48%), Bottom (Consumer Defensive -0.95%) [1]
• Volatility
  : SPY swing from -3.03% (Nov20) to +0.67% (Nov24) [3]
• Volume
  : SPY volume 83% lower than Nov21, indicating Thanksgiving week reduced activity [3]