NVDA: Loop Capital's $8.5T Target Sparks Reddit Debate Over AI Bubble vs. Growth Reality

Reddit sentiment is overwhelmingly skeptical of Loop Capital’s $8.5T market cap projection, with users characterizing it as “delusional” and bubble-like[1]. Key concerns include:

• Scale Skepticism
  : Users note $8.5T would exceed Germany’s GDP and represent nearly a quarter of US GDP, questioning sustainability[1]
• Credibility Questions
  : Discussion around Loop Capital’s track record and whether analysts are “pulling numbers from thin air”[1]
• Bubble vs. Growth Debate
  : Intense disagreement over whether this represents irrational exuberance or is supported by real earnings growth and AI demand[1]

However, bullish Redditors point to historical precedent, noting NVDA was previously underestimated at $500B, $1T, $2T, and $3T milestones[1].

Loop Capital’s bullish thesis rests on several concrete operational metrics:

• Price Target
  : $350 from $250 (73% upside), representing new Wall Street high and $8.5T+ market cap[2][3]
• Blackwell Ramp
  : GPU shipments expected to nearly double to 2.1 million units over 12-15 months[2][4]
• Revenue Visibility
  : $500 billion cumulative revenue backlog for Blackwell and Rubin chips through 2026[2]
• Production Scale
  : 6 million Blackwell chips already shipped, with 14 million more expected over next five quarters[4]
• Growth Rate
  : Five times higher growth rate than previous Hopper GPU generation[4]

The “Golden Wave” thesis centers on unprecedented Gen AI adoption demand, with Blackwell production already in full swing at Arizona facilities[2][4].

: Both Reddit discussions and analyst reports acknowledge the massive scale of NVDA’s current position and the transformative potential of AI demand.

: Reddit users focus on market cap sustainability and valuation concerns, while Loop Capital emphasizes operational execution and revenue visibility. The disconnect appears to be between perceived valuation extremes and tangible production metrics.

: The $8.5T target represents a binary outcome - either AI demand and Blackwell execution justify the valuation, or the market faces a significant correction. The $500B revenue backlog through 2026 provides concrete runway, but achieving $8.5T requires sustained multiple expansion.

:

• Blackwell GPU ramp success could validate the growth thesis
• $500B revenue visibility provides 12-15 month execution runway
• Historical precedent of underestimating NVDA’s growth potential

:

• Market cap scale may trigger regulatory scrutiny and institutional resistance
• AI demand could plateau or face competitive pressures
• Execution risk on doubling GPU shipments within aggressive timeline
• Potential valuation compression if growth expectations aren’t met

The core investment question centers on whether NVDA can sustain the operational growth required to support an $8.5T valuation, or if market psychology will limit multiple expansion regardless of execution.