Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) Hot Stock Analysis: Dual Impact of MSCI Inclusion and Lithium Price Outlook

As a leading global lithium product manufacturer[0][1], Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) covers lithium resource development, deep-processed lithium products, lithium batteries, and energy storage batteries[0]. On November 24, 2025, the company’s stock was added to the MSCI China Index[2][5], which will attract passive fund tracking and allocation[0]. Analyst ratings are divided: Daiwa Securities maintained its “Underperform” rating but raised the target price from HK$23 to HK$53[0]; while Goldman Sachs downgraded its rating from Neutral to Sell, expecting downward risks for lithium prices[3]. At the industry level, China’s lithium prices are expected to stabilize in the range of RMB 75,000 to 90,000 per ton[0], and the global lithium supply surplus will decrease from 124,000 tons to 76,000 tons[0], improving the supply-demand pattern. In terms of new energy vehicle sales, China is expected to exceed 16 million units in 2025[0], supporting lithium demand.

1. The passive capital inflow from MSCI inclusion contrasts with the divergence in analyst ratings, reflecting the market’s disagreement over the company’s short-term performance and long-term value[2][3][5].
2. The expectation of stable lithium prices is closely related to the company’s goal of turning net profit from loss to profit in 2025. If lithium prices remain in the expected range, it will significantly improve the company’s financial situation[0][6].
3. The improvement in the industry’s supply-demand pattern (reduction in global surplus) and the growth in new energy vehicle sales form a positive cycle, supporting the long-term development of the lithium industry, but short-term attention should be paid to disturbance factors such as production resumption expectations[3][6].

• Risks
  : Goldman Sachs downgraded the rating to Sell, indicating downward risks for lithium prices[3]; short-term lithium stock volatility is high, with Ganfeng Lithium once falling by more than 5%[7]; disagreements among analysts on short-term performance may intensify stock price fluctuations.
• Opportunities
  : MSCI inclusion brings passive fund allocation opportunities[2][5]; the expectation of stable lithium prices helps the company achieve net profit turnaround in 2025[0]; growth in new energy vehicle sales and improved supply-demand provide support for the industry’s long-term development[0][6].
• Priority Assessment
  : In the short term, attention should be paid to capital flows after the MSCI adjustment takes effect and lithium price fluctuations; in the long term, track the company’s profit improvement and industry supply-demand changes.

Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) has become a popular Hong Kong stock due to its inclusion in the MSCI China Index, expectations of stable lithium prices, and support for the new energy vehicle industry. As a leading global lithium product manufacturer, the company is expected to turn net profit from loss to profit in 2025. Although it faces risks such as Goldman Sachs downgrading its rating and short-term lithium price fluctuations, MSCI passive capital inflows, improved supply-demand patterns, and growing new energy vehicle demand provide support for long-term development. Investors should comprehensively consider short-term fluctuations and long-term fundamental factors and carefully evaluate investment decisions.