Hong Kong 18A Innovative Drug Sector Adjustment: Divergence Between Stock Prices & Fundamentals and Investment Opportunities

From the Xueqiu post [8], the Hong Kong 18A innovative drug sector has seen a widespread decline recently, with AKES (09926.HK) falling nearly 40%. Key reasons include:

1. Low-profile strategy
   : Companies reduce R&D progress disclosure to cope with competition, increasing tracking difficulty for investors.
2. Price-fundamental divergence
   : Despite solid sector fundamentals, stock prices have dropped significantly, presenting a contrarian positioning scenario for value investors.

Analyst reports confirm the sector’s decline and highlight positive product progress:

• Sector performance
  : The Hong Kong 18A innovative drug sector fell 3.51% weekly in 2024, with AKES dropping from a peak of HK$51.95 to HK$43.9 [2][3].
• Core product progress
  :
  • AKES: AK112 won head-to-head against Keytruda (mPFS:11.14 vs5.82 months, disease progression/death risk reduced by 49%) [4].
  • RONGC (09995.HK): Telitacicept’s Q3 2024 sales grew 80% YoY, with access to over 1000 hospitals [5].
  • ALPHM (09966.HK): KN046 received FDA orphan drug status, JSKN003 got NMPA breakthrough therapy designation [6].
  • JACOB (01167.HK): JAB-21822 received CDE Breakthrough Therapy Designation, JAB-8263 in Phase IIa [7].

The sector’s decline is driven by both company strategies (low-profile disclosure) and market factors (weak sentiment). However, core products’ strong progress indicates solid fundamentals, leading to a clear price-fundamental divergence.

• Risks
  : Continued market volatility, delayed R&D progress disclosure, regulatory uncertainties.
• Opportunities
  : Contrarian investment in companies with strong product pipelines (AKES, RONGC, ALPHM, JACOB) for long-term gains.