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Investment Differentiation in the Power Industry: Thermal Power Profit Recovery and New Energy Consumption Challenges

#电力投资 #新能源消纳 #火电利润 #光伏产能过剩 #新能源IRR #政策影响
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November 25, 2025

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Investment Differentiation in the Power Industry: Thermal Power Profit Recovery and New Energy Consumption Challenges

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Reddit Factor (Xueqiu Post)
  • No substantial obstacles to new energy consumption; the fluctuation in hours stems from the gap between planned and actual targets; the on-grid hours of new projects exceeding 3000 have been verified[^4].
  • Thermal power: Electricity volume continues to decline (reaching 3000 hours/4.5-5 trillion kWh by 2035), but per-kilowatt-hour profit rebounds; northern power plants lead in improvement, southern ones bottom out and rebound, and Inner Mongolia’s policies are uncertain[^4].
  • New energy: Actual power generation costs have hit the bottom; Document No.136 eliminates the risk of IRR differences; the IRR of new projects (about 6.5%) is guaranteed[^4].
Research Findings
  • New Energy Consumption Challenges
    : Actual utilization hours are far below 3000 hours (wind power is expected to reach 2000 hours and photovoltaics 1350 hours by 2030), and consumption capacity has become a constraint[^1][2].
  • Photovoltaic Overcapacity
    : In Q1 2025, 31 A-share photovoltaic enterprises had a net loss of 12.58 billion yuan, reflecting supply-demand imbalance[^2].
  • Thermal Power Profit Recovery
    : Document No.136 promotes the increase of on-grid electricity prices, and per-kilowatt-hour profit has improved significantly[^2].
  • New Energy IRR
    : Generally maintained at around 6.5%, lower than historical levels, with regional differences ranging from 6.5% to 13%[^3][2].
Synthesis
  • Alignment Points
    : Thermal power’s per-kilowatt-hour profit recovery, new energy new projects’ IRR of about 6.5% (agreed by both sides)[^2][4].
  • Contradiction Points
    : Xueqiu post believes there are no substantial obstacles to consumption, while research shows that actual hours are low and consumption capacity restricts development[^1][4].
  • Impact
    : Power investment differentiation is obvious; it is necessary to distinguish between thermal power and new energy sub-sectors.
Risks and Opportunities
  • Opportunities
    : Targets in thermal power (profit recovery) and new energy (stable IRR and electricity volume growth)[^2][4].
  • Risks
    : Photovoltaic overcapacity, uncertainty in Inner Mongolia’s thermal power policies, insufficient new energy consumption capacity[^1][2][4].
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