2026 Global Lithium Battery Production Forecast: 3000GWh Target and Lithium Carbonate Supply Risks

The 2026 global lithium battery production target of 3000GWh is underpinned by two core growth engines: (1) Global energy storage demand with long order cycles and stable expansion; (2) A 25% increase in power battery output driven by rising EV penetration and higher per-vehicle battery capacity [3].

A critical miscalculation exists in lithium carbonate requirements: the industry’s traditional 650-ton per GWh standard is outdated. Modern LFP batteries require ~1612 tons/GWh and NMC batteries ~1416 tons/GWh [9]. This implies 2026 lithium carbonate demand could be significantly higher than initial estimates. While 2026 global supply is projected at 2.089 million tons and demand at 2.004 million tons (static surplus of ~85,000 tons), structural shortages will arise when accounting for supply chain inventory needs [5].

Despite robust demand, the sector faces intense cost pressures: LFP material prices have dropped 80.2% from 173,000 CNY per ton to 34,000 CNY per ton, leaving most firms unprofitable [2]. Leading companies operate at full capacity, but profitability remains elusive for the majority [1].

Lithium carbonate prices have already surpassed 100,000 CNY per ton and could reach 150,000-200,000 CNY per ton if demand grows by over 30% [6][7].