2026 Global Lithium Battery Production Forecast: 3000GWh Target and Lithium Carbonate Supply Risks

The 2026 global lithium battery production target of 3000GWh is underpinned by two core growth engines: (1) Global energy storage demand with long order cycles and stable expansion; (2) A 25% increase in power battery output driven by rising EV penetration and higher per-vehicle battery capacity [3].

A critical miscalculation exists in lithium carbonate requirements: the industry’s traditional 650-ton per GWh standard is outdated. Modern LFP batteries require ~1612 tons/GWh and NMC batteries ~1416 tons/GWh [9]. This implies 2026 lithium carbonate demand could be significantly higher than initial estimates. While 2026 global supply is projected at 208.9万吨 and demand at 200.4万吨 (static surplus of ~8.5万吨), structural shortages will arise when accounting for supply chain inventory needs [5].

Despite robust demand, the sector faces intense cost pressures:磷酸铁锂 material prices have dropped 80.2% from 17.3万元/吨 to 3.4万元/吨, leaving most firms unprofitable [2]. Leading companies operate at full capacity, but profitability remains elusive for the majority [1].

Lithium carbonate prices have already surpassed 10万元/吨 and could reach 15-20万元/吨 if demand grows by over 30% [6][7].