A-shares Structured Decline Continues: Tech Sector Leads Decline, Expectations of V-shaped Reversal Around Spring Festival Heat Up

Social Media Views (Xueqiu Investors)

Market Judgment
: A-shares have short bears and long bulls; currently, it’s a structured decline, with the tech sector as the main declining direction, and high-dividend sectors may strengthen against the trend.
Operation Strategy
: Fully leveraged tech sector pulled back 40% (better than the previous 60%); more than half of the funds have been transferred out, no longer reducing positions and willing to bear subsequent declines.
Reversal Expectation
: A V-shaped reversal may occur around the Spring Festival (February performance preview period); need to wait for Nvidia’s bubble to burst and A-shares to drop continuously; leading sectors are tech (AI edge side with expected annual report growth such as robots, consumer electronics, and AI applications); a secondary low may appear a few months after the reversal, ending the bear market.

Research Findings

Current Market Verification
: On November 21, A-shares fell sharply (Shanghai Composite Index dropped over 2%, ChiNext Index fell over 4%); the tech sector (semiconductors, electronic components, etc.) led the decline (net capital outflow exceeded 10 billion yuan); high-dividend sectors (banks, etc.) strengthened against the trend (Bank of China rose 4% to a new high); structural differentiation characteristics are significant.
Nvidia Dynamics
: 2025 Q3 financial report exceeded expectations (revenue 57 billion USD, up 62% YoY); gross profit margin 73.4%; 2025-2026 orders are basically sold out; but investor sentiment is divided (161 funds increased holdings, 160 reduced holdings); signs of bubble bursting are not obvious yet.
Reversal Support
: A-share historical data shows a V-shaped reversal pattern around the Spring Festival; the AI edge side sector has strong performance (167 semiconductor companies’ net profit increased by nearly 40% in the first three quarters); the CSI Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Index rose 47.76% in Q3, providing fundamental support for the reversal.

Comprehensive Analysis

Consensus Points
: The current structured decline characteristics are highly consistent with investors’ judgments; the tech sector leads the decline, and high-dividend sectors’ defensive nature is prominent.
Divergence Points
: Investors expect Nvidia’s bubble bursting to be a prerequisite for reversal, but research shows signs of its bubble bursting are not obvious yet; full orders support short-term trends.
Core Impact
: The reversal expectation around the Spring Festival has historical patterns and fundamental support, but need to pay attention to Nvidia’s dynamics and whether A-shares show continuous decline signals.

Risks and Opportunities

Opportunities
: AI edge side sectors (robots, consumer electronics, etc.) have great potential for expected annual report growth; the expectation of leading the V-shaped reversal around the Spring Festival is clear; high-dividend sectors (banks, etc.) have prominent short-term defensive properties.
Risks
: The risk of Nvidia’s bubble bursting (though not yet apparent) may trigger further declines in A-shares’ tech sector; a secondary low after reversal may extend the bear market cycle.

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