Analysis Report: Why CIFR and APLD Have Almost Identical Price Charts

On 2025-11-22 (UTC), a Reddit user asked why

and exhibit nearly identical price action, noting similar patterns to previous pairs like QUBT/QBTS and speculating institutional algos as the cause [Event Content]. The discussion highlighted key hypotheses: institutional basket trading, same sector/speculative nature, market-wide trends, high-frequency trading (HFT) amplification, and ETF/synthetic trade linkages [Event Content].

CIFR and APLD show strong daily price correlation over the past 10 trading days (2025-11-10 to 2025-11-21):

• Nov 13
  : CIFR (-10.33%), APLD (-9.36%) [Tool 0, Tool1]
• Nov20
  : CIFR (-13.33%), APLD (-17.62%) [Tool0, Tool1]
• Nov12
  : CIFR (-7.06%), APLD (-8.77%) [Tool0, Tool1]

This correlation aligns with Reddit’s hypothesis of institutional basket trading [Event Content].

Both companies operate in overlapping high-growth sectors:

• CIFR
  : Crypto mining + AI hosting (e.g., $830M AI hosting deal with Fluidstack, backed by Google) [Tool4: Insider Monkey]
• APLD
  : AI infrastructure (e.g., gigawatt-scale Polaris Forge 2 campus for AI) [Tool5: Yahoo Finance]

They are explicitly grouped as peers by financial platforms (e.g., APLD’s peer list includes CIFR) [Tool6: Investing.com], meaning institutional investors likely trade them as part of the same sector basket.

Institutions increased positions in both stocks during H1 2025, indicating coordinated buying/selling [Tool6: CryptoAdventure]. This supports the Reddit claim of institutional algo-driven movements [Event Content].

• CIFR
  : Average daily volume = ~49.5M shares; 3 days of >10% daily change [Tool0]
• APLD
  : Average daily volume = ~30.5M shares; 2 days of >10% daily change [Tool1]
  Both stocks have high volatility, typical of speculative tech/crypto sectors.

APLD’s valuation metrics are in line with peers like CIFR:

• Price/Book
  : APLD=5.8x vs peer avg=1.9x (includes CIFR) [Tool6: Investing.com]
• Price/Sales
  : APLD=34.7x vs peer avg=12x [Tool6: Investing.com]
  This confirms they are in the same high-valuation peer group, leading to correlated investor sentiment.

1. ETF Holdings
   : Exact ETFs holding both stocks (to confirm basket trading) are unknown.
2. Institutional Ownership
   : Percentage of institutional holdings for each stock (failed to retrieve due to IP limit) [Tool2, Tool3].
3. Correlation Coefficient
   : Quantified statistical correlation between their daily returns (not available from current data).
4. Sector ETF Movements
   : Impact of sector-specific ETFs (e.g., AI or crypto mining ETFs) on their prices.

Decision-makers should investigate these gaps to confirm the exact drivers of correlation.

• Volatility
  : Both stocks are in highly volatile sectors (AI/crypto), leading to sharp price swings (e.g., CIFR’s 13.33% drop on Nov20) [Tool0, Tool1].
• Sector Dependency
  : Their performance is tied to AI/crypto trends—any downturn in these sectors will impact both [Tool4, Tool5].
• Institutional Exit Risk
  : If institutions reduce positions in the peer group, both stocks could decline together [Tool6: CryptoAdventure].

1. AI Sector Trends
   : NVDA’s performance (since APLD’s news links its price to NVDA) [Tool5: Benzinga].
2. Crypto Market Movements
   : Bitcoin price changes (since both are crypto-adjacent) [Tool4: Insider Monkey].
3. Institutional Flows
   : Changes in institutional holdings for both stocks.
4. Sector ETF Performance
   : Returns of AI/crypto mining ETFs (e.g., BITO, BLOK) to gauge broader sector sentiment.

[Event Content] Reddit Discussion: Why almost Identical Charts? (2025-11-22 UTC)
[Tool0] CIFR Daily Prices (2025-11-10 to 2025-11-21)
[Tool1] APLD Daily Prices (2025-11-10 to 2025-11-21)
[Tool2] Company Info Error (CIFR)
[Tool3] Company Info Error (APLD)
[Tool4] Insider Monkey: Is CIFR One of the Best Cryptocurrency Stocks? (2025-11-22)
[Tool5] Yahoo Finance: Will Applied Digital’s Second Campus Unlock Growth? (2025-11-21)
[Tool6] CryptoAdventure: Investor Sentiment Updates on Bitcoin Mining Stocks (2025)
[Tool6] Investing.com: APLD Peer Group Metrics (2025)
[Tool5] Benzinga: Stock Of The Day: Applied Digital (2025-11-20)
[Tool6] LuxAlgo: Institutional Insights: How Pros Use Algo Trading (2025)
[Tool6] TradingView: CIFR & APLD Chart Images (2025)