2025 Market Outlook: UK Budget Focus, US Rate Cut Uncertainty, and Jobs Data Delay Impact

The week ending Nov21,2025 saw global markets recover after a recent selloff, driven by three key developments: the UK Autumn Budget (Nov26) addressing a £20-40bn fiscal hole [1][4], US rate cut probability dropping to43.8% for Dec [2], and US jobs data delay to Dec16 [3]. Market indices rebounded: S&P500 (+0.72% to6602.98), NASDAQ (+0.50% to22273.08), FTSE (+0.13% to9539.71) [0]. Healthcare (+1.73%) led gains, utilities (-0.88%) underperformed [0].

• The S&P500’s 0.72% rebound on Nov21 follows a2.96% drop the prior day, indicating mixed sentiment [0].
• The UK’s £20-40bn fiscal hole may force austerity or tax hikes, impacting growth [4].
• Divided Fed views on rate cuts correlate with increased market uncertainty [2].

1. Data uncertainty: Missing Oct jobs data increases Fed policy risk [3].
2. Rate cut volatility: Shifting expectations could swing bonds/equities [2].
3. UK fiscal reforms: Potential wealth tax hikes may hit real estate/financial sectors [1].
   
   Opportunities
   :

• Monitoring UK Budget announcements (Nov26) for sector-specific impacts [1].
• Tracking CME FedWatch updates for rate cut trends [2].

Critical data points:

• UK Budget date: Nov26 [1].
• US rate cut probability (Dec): 43.8% [2].
• Jobs data release: Dec16 [3].
• Market indices: S&P500 (6602.98), NASDAQ (22273.08), FTSE (9539.71) [0].
  Key monitoring points: UK Budget announcements, FedWatch updates, Dec16 jobs data.