Black Friday Impact on Amazon (AMZN) Stock & Timing Considerations for School Trading Game

The user, participating in a school trading game ending in January, holds Amazon (AMZN) stock and seeks guidance on whether to sell around Black Friday (November 28, 2025) or a few days after. The query reflects uncertainty about the short-term impact of Black Friday sales on Amazon’s stock price and optimal timing for a sale in the context of a game with a fixed end date.

Black Friday sales events typically generate significant retail activity but have

on Amazon’s stock price in the immediate term. Historical data shows that while the event drives sales volume, the stock’s reaction is not consistently positive:

• A 2025 analysis by GSB Global notes that short-term sales spikes during Black Friday/Cyber Monday often lead to subsequent market drops for the remainder of Q4, and vice versa. This pattern suggests caution about assuming an immediate post-Black Friday price increase [5].
• Amazon’s 2025 Black Friday sales event started early (November 20) and runs through December 1, spreading sales over a 12-day period. This extended timeline may dilute the immediate stock reaction to a single day’s results [6].
• Amazon’s recent daily volatility (2.87%) suggests potential price swings around the event [0].

Amazon’s Q4 2025 guidance (released October 30) projects revenue of

, exceeding analyst estimates of $208.12 billion [1]. This strong guidance, combined with AWS’s fastest growth in three years, supports medium-term stability. However:

• Consumer Caution:
  Forbes reports U.S. holiday retail sales growth is expected to slow to 4.0% (Bain forecast) due to inflation, moderating upside potential [2].
• Diversification:
  Amazon’s cloud segment (AWS) provides a buffer against retail sector fluctuations.

Metric	Value	Source
Period Change	+0.63%	[0]
Price Range	$215.18–$258.60	[0]
Daily Volatility	2.87%	[0]
Average Volume	55.10M	[0]

• Prime Big Deal Days:
  Average spend per order = $45.42; 53% of households placed ≥2 orders [3].
• Black Friday 2025:
  Extended 12-day event (Nov 20–Dec1) with discounts up to 57% [6].

• 2024:
  Amazon’s November 2024 stock peaked at $215.90 but closed at $207.89 (down 3.7% from peak) [4].
• General Trend:
  No consistent short-term upward trend in Amazon’s stock immediately following Black Friday over the past 5 years [4].

1. Post-Black Friday Results:
   Current data only covers up to November 21 (before Black Friday). Real-time sales metrics (e.g., Cyber Monday) will clarify if Amazon is on track to meet Q4 guidance.
2. Q4 Earnings Date:
   If earnings are released before the game ends (January), this will be a major driver of stock performance.
3. Competitor Performance:
   Walmart/Target’s results may impact retail sector sentiment.

• Short-Term Timing:
  Historical data shows no consistent post-Black Friday gain. Selling on or immediately after Black Friday carries uncertainty.
• Medium-Term Holding:
  For the January deadline, holding through the holiday season may be beneficial if Amazon meets Q4 guidance, but consumer risks remain.

1. Volatility Risk:
   Amazon’s 2.87% daily volatility could lead to unexpected price swings around Black Friday. Users should monitor real-time sales data closely.
2. Consumer Spending Risk:
   Slower-than-expected holiday sales may cause underperformance relative to guidance.
3. Post-Event Pullback:
   Historical patterns suggest that if Amazon’s stock spikes during Black Friday, it may drop in subsequent weeks [5].

1. Real-time Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales reports (Nov 28–Dec1).
2. Amazon’s official holiday sales updates.
3. Q4 earnings announcement date (expected late January 2026).

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This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Historical performance is not indicative of future results. The trading game’s deadline (January) should be the primary factor in any decision.