Analysis of the Original PMM Pre-Market Model for ES Futures: Backtesting Claims and Risk Considerations

On November 21,2025, an anonymous Reddit user posted about the Original PMM (Pre-Market Magnet) Model for ES futures, claiming consistent high-probability entries using two Fixed Range Volume Profiles (FRVPs) [1][2]. The model uses one FRVP for directional bias and another for entry zones, with backtested results showing 31 days of data,45 trades, and a profit factor of4.54 [6][7]. FRVP is a tool displaying volume distribution over a specific price range to identify liquidity nodes [3][4]. The first live test aligned with backtest results [1], but widespread live performance data remains unavailable.

Cross-domain analysis reveals FRVPs are used in institutional trading for liquidity assessment [3][9], but the model’s anonymous authorship and lack of peer review raise credibility concerns [1][2]. The high profit factor is notable, but without transparency on parameters (e.g., FRVP range settings) or risk metrics (e.g., drawdowns), its real-world viability remains unproven [5][8].

Risks include overfitting to historical data [5], lack of transaction cost inclusion in backtests [8], and subjective FRVP range selection [3][4]. Opportunities exist for traders if live performance matches backtests, but this requires further validation [1][2].

The PMM model claims strong backtest results for ES futures, but users should exercise caution due to unproven live performance, limited transparency, and potential overfitting risks. Critical factors to monitor include public updates on live results and disclosure of model parameters [1][2][5]