Analysis of Peter Boockvar's Prediction of Increased FOMC Dissents During Powell's Final Term

This analysis is based on Peter Boockvar’s comments on CNBC’s Fast Money [2] regarding expected increased dissents at Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings during Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s final term (ending May 15, 2026 [1]). Boockvar, CIO at OnePoint BFG with over 30 years of experience [0], highlighted growing divisions among policymakers.

Recent trends support this prediction: the October 2025 FOMC meeting saw rare dual dissents (10-2 vote to cut rates by 25bps), with members favoring both tighter and looser policy [3]. Key drivers include data uncertainty from a 43-day government shutdown delaying labor data [4], and potential positioning by Fed members for the post-Powell era [3].

1. Dual Dissent Rarity
   : The October meeting marked an unusual split—dissents for both tighter and looser policy—indicating deeper divisions beyond traditional hawk-dove lines [3].
2. Data Gaps Impact
   : Delayed labor market data reduces policymakers’ ability to make informed decisions, amplifying divergent views [4].
3. Post-Powell Positioning
   : As Powell’s term nears end, members may dissent more openly to signal policy preferences for the next chair [3].

• Increased dissents reduce policy predictability, potentially leading to bond yield swings and equity market volatility [4].
• Unclear signals may delay corporate investments due to uncertain borrowing costs [4].
• Persistent dissents could erode Fed’s perceived unity, weakening its ability to manage market expectations [3].

• Volatility may create short-term trading opportunities for investors navigating policy uncertainty.
• Clearer dissent patterns could help anticipate future policy shifts.

• Peter Boockvar’s credibility is enhanced by his background at the Lindsey Group (Fed-focused research firm) [0].
• The December 10, 2025 FOMC meeting (last of 2025 [5]) is critical—markets assign a 50% chance of rate cut [3].
• Recent dual dissents signal a deepening policy divide, which may persist into Powell’s final months.