NVIDIA Q3 2025 Earnings Analysis: Beat & Strong Guidance Fuel AI Chip Demand

On November 19, 2025, NVIDIA (NVDA) reported record Q3 FY26 results and issued stronger-than-expected Q4 guidance, leading to a >4% rise in extended trading [3][7]. Key highlights from the earnings release:

• Q3 revenue: $57.0 billion (up 22% QoQ, 62% YoY)
• Data center revenue: $51.2 billion (up25% QoQ,66% YoY)
• Q4 guidance: $65.0 billion (+/-2%) vs. consensus estimate of $62.38 billion [2]

The results reflected sustained demand for AI chips, driven by the Blackwell architecture and partnerships with cloud providers [1].

• Post-Earnings
  : NVDA rose >4% in extended trading on November19, as investors reacted to the guidance beat [3][7].
• Next Trading Day
  : NVDA closed at $180.64 on November20 (-3.15% from November19’s close of $186.52), likely due to profit-taking [6].

• Sentiment
  : Positive, as the guidance beat signals ongoing growth in AI chip demand [1][2].
• Sector Spillover
  : Competitors in the semiconductor sector underperformed on November20: AMD (-11.47%), INTC (-6.61%), TSM (-5.03%)—indicating NVDA’s dominant market share in AI chips [0].

1. Directly Impacted
   : NVDA [0][6]
2. Related Semiconductors
   : AMD (-11.47% Nov20), INTC (-6.61% Nov20), TSM (-5.03% Nov20) [0]
3. Upstream
   : TSM (manufacturer of NVDA chips) [0]
4. Downstream
   : Cloud providers (AWS, Azure, Google Cloud—NVDA partners) [1]
5. AI Startups
   : OpenAI, Anthropic (using NVDA chips) [1]

• Exact percentage of China revenue in Q3 (NVDA stated it’s below pre-controls levels but no exact number) [5].
• Blackwell chip production yield rates (to assess supply capacity) [1].

• Positive
  : Strong demand for AI chips (supported by guidance beat) [1][2].
• Negative
  : Competition from AMD/Intel and export controls to China (lost $50B opportunity) [0][5].

• Blackwell supply ramp progress [1].
• China export control updates [5].
• Competitor product launches (AMD MI300X, Intel Gaudi3) [0].

• Export Controls
  : Users should be aware that China export restrictions may limit NVDA’s growth potential (estimated $50B opportunity if lifted) [5].
• Competition
  : This development raises concerns about AMD/Intel eroding market share [0].
• Margin Compression
  : Historical patterns suggest the Blackwell ramp may lead to gross margin compression (low70s initially) [1].

[0] Ginlix Analytical Database (get_stock_daily_prices, get_sector_performance)
[1] NVIDIA Press Release: NVIDIA Announces Financial Results for Third Quarter Fiscal2026 (https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2025/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-Third-Quarter-Fiscal-2026/default.aspx)
[2] Investopedia: Nvidia Earnings Live: AI Chip Giant’s Results Blow Past Wall Street … (https://www.investopedia.com/nvidia-earnings-live-coverage-q3-fy2026-11852941)
[3] Nasdaq: After-Hours Earnings Report for November19,2025 (https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/after-hours-earnings-report-november-19-2025-nvda-panw-njr-cpa-joyy-klic-tbbb-odd-uti-bv)
[4] Public.com: Trade NVIDIA (NVDA) Stock After-hours (https://public.com/stocks/nvda/after-hours)
[5] Insiderfinance.io: Nvidia China Export Controls Keep Blackwell Chips Out (https://www.insiderfinance.io/news/nvidia-china-export-controls-keep-blackwell-chips-out)
[6] Yahoo Finance: NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) Stock Historical Prices (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history/)
[7] Business Insider: Nvidia earnings recap: Stock pops after revenue beat (https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-q3-earnings-live-updates-nvda-stock-price-ai-chips-2025-11)

Note: This analysis is for informational purposes only and not investment advice. Always conduct your own research before making decisions.