S&P 500 (SPX) 100-Day SMA Break Analysis Report

Date:

2025-11-21

Event Summary

A Reddit post (timestamp:

2025-11-21 13:02 EST

) claimed the S&P 500 Index (SPX) had broken below its

100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA100)

. The post included a chart and contextualized the SMA as a lagging trend confirmation indicator rather than a predictive tool.

Market Impact Assessment

Short-Term Impact

Intraday Reversal
: The SPX dipped below SMA100 early on Nov 21 but recovered to close at
6,654.34
(up +1.77% for the day), indicating strong buying support at the SMA level [2].
Sentiment
: Mixed—initial bearishness from the dip was offset by late-day bullish momentum.

Medium-Term Trend

The SPX remains above its SMA100 (
6,548.59
) but is below its
20-day MA (6,765.39)
and
50-day MA (6,712.30)
, signaling short-term downward momentum despite long-term uptrend retention [2].

Key Data Extraction

Metric	Value	Source
Nov21 Closing Price	6,654.34	[2]
SMA100	6,548.59	[2]
SMA50	6,712.30	[2]
SMA20	6,765.39	[2]
9-Day Stochastic %K	20.01% (oversold territory)	[2]
ADX (9-Day)	22.60 (moderate trend strength)	[2]
Bearish Momentum (-DI vs +DI)	23.73 >17.59	[2]
Year-to-Date Return	+13.02%	[2]

Affected Instruments

Directly Impacted

SPX Index
: Core benchmark for U.S. equities.
ETFs
: SPY (SPDR S&P500 ETF), VOO (Vanguard S&P500 ETF), IVV (iShares Core S&P500 ETF).

Related Sectors

All SPX sectors, including

Technology (28% weight)

, Healthcare (13%), Financials (12%), and Consumer Discretionary (11%) [0].

Context for Decision-Makers

Information Gaps

Intraday Details
: No data on the exact time/price of the SMA100 break (before the Reddit post).
Drivers
: No information on specific events (e.g., Fed comments, earnings) causing the dip.

Risk Considerations

Short-Term Risk
: Position below SMA20/SMA50 may lead to volatility in SPX-linked instruments.
Long-Term Risk
: A sustained close below SMA100 would confirm a bearish trend reversal.

Key Factors to Monitor

Subsequent Closes
: Watch for SPX closing below SMA100 in the next 1-3 days.
Volatility
: Track Average True Range (ATR) for increased uncertainty.
Sector Leadership
: Identify sectors driving the reversal (e.g., Defensive vs Growth).

Risk Warnings

Users should be aware that the SPX’s position below its 20-day and50-day moving averages indicates short-term downward momentum, which may impact related ETFs and component stocks.

This development raises concerns about potential near-term volatility that warrant careful consideration for traders holding SPX-linked instruments.

References

[0] Ginlix Analytical Database (get_stock_daily_prices result for ^GSPC).
[2] Barchart.com: S&P500 Index Technical Analysis (https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/%24SPX/technical-analysis).

Disclaimer

: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct independent research before making financial decisions.

S&P 500 (SPX) 100-Day SMA Break Analysis Report

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