Thanksgiving Week 2025: Retail Earnings Preview & Market Impact Analysis

This analysis focuses on the shortened Thanksgiving week (Nov 24–28, 2025) highlighted by retail and tech earnings reports and critical economic data releases. Schaeffers Research identifies 10 companies set to report earnings (ANF, BBY, DELL, DKS, HPQ, KSS, NIO, WOOF, URBN, ZS) early in the week, alongside key indicators like the PCE price index (Nov 26) and GDP (Nov26). Recent market trends show consumer cyclical (-0.94%) and technology (-0.55%) sectors underperforming, reflecting investor caution ahead of earnings. The S&P500 (-0.36%) and NASDAQ (-0.59%) declined on Nov18, indicating mild downward momentum leading into the week [0][1].

1. Consumer Sector Caution
   : Underperformance of consumer cyclical and defensive sectors signals concerns about consumer spending, a critical driver for retail earnings reports [0].
2. Pre-Earnings Volatility
   : Zscaler (ZS) has seen a 7.56% drop over 5 days, potentially reflecting pre-earnings uncertainty, while Dell (DELL) shows volatility with a Nov13 drop (-4.19%) followed by a Nov18 recovery (+1.82%) [0].
3. Liquidity Risks
   : The shortened week (closed Nov27, early close Nov28) may reduce trading volume, amplifying price volatility for earnings-reporting stocks [1].
4. Inflation Impact
   : The Nov26 PCE price index will shape Federal Reserve policy expectations, directly influencing consumer spending and retail sector performance [1].

• Earnings Surprises
  : ZS’s ongoing decline and consumer sector underperformance increase the risk of negative earnings surprises for retail and tech stocks [0].
• Volatility
  : Low liquidity in the shortened week could lead to exaggerated price movements, especially for stocks with high earnings-related uncertainty [1].
• Inflation Concerns
  : Higher-than-expected PCE data may signal tighter Fed policy, pressuring consumer discretionary spending [1].

• Black Friday Sentiment
  : While not explicitly covered in current data, retail earnings reports may provide insights into Black Friday sales outlook, offering potential sector-level opportunities [1].

• Earnings Stocks
  : ANF, BBY, DELL, DKS, HPQ, KSS, NIO, WOOF, URBN, ZS (early week reports) [1].
• Economic Data
  : Nov25 (PPI, consumer confidence), Nov26 (GDP, PCE), Nov28 (Chicago business barometer) [1].
• Recent Trends
  : ZS (-7.56% 5-day), DELL (+1.82% Nov18), consumer cyclical (-0.94%) underperformance [0].
• Market Schedule
  : Closed Nov27 (Thanksgiving), early close Nov28 (Black Friday) [1].

: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct independent research before making decisions.