MicroStrategy (MSTR): Crash Risk Revisited Amid Bitcoin Leverage and Financial Engineering

Reddit users question if Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin leverage will repeat past MSTR crashes [2], with claims of MSTR as a “3x leveraged BTC bet” [1], concerns over 2028 convertible note servicing [1], and notes of a 50% drop since July [7].

Historical crashes: 62% 2000 drop (SEC fraud) [3], 30-57% 2021-25 BTC-driven declines [3]. Current data: ~649k BTC holdings ($61.7B) [4], bankruptcy risk at $12.6k BTC (matches $8.22B debt) [6], Q3 2025 net income $2.8B [5], CalSTRS $133M stake [6].

2000’s accounting fraud differs from current BTC correlation risks [3], but leverage and dilution threats persist [1]. Institutional backing adds stability [6], while 40% of BTC holdings are underwater [6].

• Risks
  : Bankruptcy at $12.6k BTC [6], convertible note servicing [1], dilution if mNAV <1 [3].
• Opportunities
  : BTC upside amplification [4], Q3 profitability [5], B- rating expanding investors [6].