Gulf Stocks Muted on Weaker Oil Prices and Fed Rate Cut Uncertainty

November 19, 2025

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On November 19, 2025, Reuters reported that most Gulf stock markets were subdued in early trade due to two key factors: weaker global oil prices and growing doubts about a U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December [9]. The report noted investors awaited a delayed U.S. jobs report to clarify the Fed’s policy path.

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• Gulf Indices:
  The UAE’s ADX General Index fell 0.07% on November 19, reflecting muted sentiment [5]. Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) was down 0.69% as of November 13 (latest available data before the event) [6].
• Oil Stocks:
  Saudi Aramco (2222.SR) closed unchanged at 25.84 SAR on November 18 [7], while ADNOC Drilling dropped 0.18% on November 14 [8].
• Sentiment:
  Cautious, with investors holding positions ahead of the delayed U.S. jobs report and Fed policy decisions [9].

• Oil Price Pressure:
  Lower Brent crude prices (around $63 USD on November 18 [1]) could reduce revenue for Gulf oil exporters, which dominate regional stock markets.
• Fed Policy Uncertainty:
  The probability of a December Fed rate cut fell to ~49% (from higher earlier levels [3]), increasing the risk of capital outflows from Gulf markets to higher-yielding U.S. assets.

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Metric	Value	Date	Source
Brent Crude Price	~$63 USD	Nov 18, 2025	[1]
UAE ADX General Index Change	-0.07%	Nov 19, 2025	[5]
Saudi Aramco (2222.SR) Close	25.84 SAR	Nov 18, 2025	[7]
Fed December Rate Cut Probability	~49%	Nov 13, 2025	[3]
ADNOC Drilling Change	-0.18%	Nov 14, 2025	[8]

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1. TASI Performance on Nov 19:
   Latest data is from Nov 13 [6], missing the event day’s impact.
2. ADNOC Drilling Nov 19 Price:
   Only Nov 14 data is available [8].
3. U.S. Jobs Report Results:
   Delayed, but critical for Fed policy clarity [9].
4. Impact on Other Gulf Oil Stocks:
   No data on QatarEnergy or Kuwait Petroleum for Nov 19.

• Monitor Brent Prices:
  Track daily movements to assess revenue risks for Gulf oil companies.
• Fed Policy Statements:
  Watch for comments from Fed officials to gauge rate cut odds.
• OPEC Decisions:
  Supply adjustments could mitigate oil price declines [2].

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• Prolonged Low Oil Prices:
  Users should be aware that sustained Brent prices below $65 USD may significantly impact Gulf oil companies’ revenue and dividend sustainability (e.g., Saudi Aramco’s dividend is linked to oil performance).
• Fed Policy Uncertainty:
  This development raises concerns about potential capital outflows from Gulf markets, as higher U.S. rates attract global investors.
• Oversupply Risks:
  OPEC’s report of supply exceeding demand in Q3 2025 [2] could further press oil prices, amplifying revenue risks for Gulf exporters.

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[1] RoboForex. “Brent prices dipped to around 63.00 USD.” Nov 18, 2025. https://roboforex.com/beginners/analytics/forex-forecast/commodities/brent-oil-forecast-2025-11-18/
[2] Trading Economics. “Brent crude oil - Price - Chart - Historical Data - News.” Nov 16, 2025. https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil
[3] CNBC. “Markets rethink December rate cut amid Fed doubts.” Nov 13, 2025. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/13/markets-rethink-december-rate-cut-amid-fed-doubts.html
[4] Fortune. “Fed speeches reveal split that puts rate cut in jeopardy.” Nov 18, 2025. https://fortune.com/2025/11/18/federal-reserve-split-interest-rate-cut-inflation-labor-market/
[5] Trading Economics. “United Arab Emirates Stock Market (ADX General).” Nov 19, 2025. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-arab-emirates/stock-market
[6] Trading Economics. “Saudi Arabia Stock Market (TASI).” Nov 13, 2025. https://tradingeconomics.com/saudi-arabia/stock-market
[7] Finance Charts. “Saudi Aramco (2222.SR) Stock Price History.” Nov 18, 2025. https://www.financecharts.com/stocks/2222-SR/summary/price
[8] ADNOC Drilling. “Historical Share Price.” Nov 14, 2025. https://adnocdrilling.ae/en/investor-relations/stock-market-data/historical-share-price
[9] Reuters. “Most Gulf stocks muted on weaker oil, Fed rate cut doubts.” Nov 19, 2025. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/most-gulf-stocks-muted-weaker-oil-fed-rate-cut-doubts-2025-11-19/

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This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct independent research before making financial decisions.