US-China Trade Deal Boosts Asian Session Futures as Nasdaq 100 Nears 8-Month Winning Streak

This analysis is based on the FX Empire report [1] published on November 2, 2025, which reported significant gains in US stock futures during the Asian session following a breakthrough trade agreement between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

The trade agreement triggered substantial futures gains across major US indices:

• Nasdaq 100 E-mini
  : +102 points, approaching an 8-month winning streak [1]
• S&P 500 E-mini
  : +114 points [1]
• Dow Jones E-mini
  : +22 points [1]

However, this optimism contrasts with recent market performance, where major indices closed lower on October 31, 2025:

• S&P 500: 6,840.20 (-0.57%) [0]
• Nasdaq Composite: 23,724.96 (-0.91%) [0]
• Dow Jones: 47,562.88 (-0.10%) [0]

The comprehensive agreement includes several key provisions that directly affect market sectors:

: China committed to purchasing at least 12 million metric tons of US soybeans in the last two months of 2025 and at least 25 million metric tons annually from 2026-2028 [2]. This represents a significant boost for agricultural commodities and related stocks.

: NVIDIA (NVDA) was specifically highlighted as a beneficiary, with CEO Jensen Huang stating the agreement ensures continued market access in China [1]. However, recent performance shows mixed results, with NVDA at $202.49 (-0.20%) and the broader technology sector declining 1.74% despite positive trade news [0].

: China agreed to suspend retaliatory tariffs announced since March 4th, while the US will extend certain Section 301 tariff exclusions until November 2026 [1][2].

While the trade deal boosted sentiment, China’s economic data presents concerning counter-signals. The RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI fell from 51.2 in September to 50.6 in October, signaling weakening external demand despite trade optimism [1].

Sector performance analysis reveals divergent trends:

• Communication Services
  : +1.15% [0]
• Financial Services
  : +1.38% [0]
• Real Estate
  : +1.77% [0]
• Technology
  : -1.74% [0]

The trade agreement reveals several critical market dynamics:

1. Technology-Agriculture Linkage
   : The deal’s dual focus on technology market access (NVIDIA) and agricultural purchases creates interconnected impacts across seemingly unrelated sectors.

2. Futures vs. Spot Market Divergence
   : Strong futures performance during Asian sessions contrasts with recent spot market weakness, suggesting potential short-term sentiment disconnect from underlying fundamentals.

3. Geopolitical Risk Premium Reduction
   : The suspension of rare earth export controls and tariff escalations reduces geopolitical risk premiums, particularly benefiting technology and manufacturing sectors.

The agreement addresses immediate trade tensions but may not resolve deeper structural issues. The focus on specific commodities and tariff suspensions rather than comprehensive trade reform suggests temporary relief rather than permanent resolution of US-China economic competition.

1. Implementation Risk
   : Historical precedent shows US-China trade agreements often face significant implementation challenges and compliance verification issues [1].

2. Economic Divergence
   : China’s weakening manufacturing PMI (50.6) suggests underlying economic fragility that could undermine trade deal benefits [1].

3. Stagflation Concerns
   : Rising prices combined with potential employment weakness could fuel stagflation fears, potentially derailing the market rally [1].

4. Fed Policy Uncertainty
   : Mixed inflation and labor market signals may lead to inconsistent Federal Reserve policy responses [1].

1. Agricultural Sector
   : Guaranteed soybean purchases provide clear revenue visibility for US agricultural companies.

2. Technology Supply Chain
   : Reduced export control uncertainty benefits semiconductor and technology hardware companies with China exposure.

3. Market Sentiment
   : Trade optimism could sustain momentum through year-end, particularly if implementation proceeds smoothly.

• ISM Manufacturing PMI data
  : Expected to show whether manufacturing contraction continues [1]
• Fed speeches
  : Officials’ comments on inflation and monetary policy direction [1]
• Implementation verification
  : Actual soybean purchase volumes versus committed amounts
• China economic data
  : Ongoing PMI and export data to gauge real economic impact

Key technical levels identified by market analysts [1]:

• Dow Jones
  : Resistance at 48,000-48,250, support at 47,500-47,000
• Nasdaq 100
  : Resistance at 26,399-26,500, support at 26,000-25,500
• S&P 500
  : Resistance at 6,954-7,000, support at 6,750-6,500

1. Implementation Timeline
   : Specific timeline for various trade deal provisions remains unclear
2. Verification Mechanisms
   : Details on compliance monitoring and enforcement
3. Broader Economic Impact
   : Limited data on effects on other global trade relationships
4. Corporate Guidance
   : Most affected companies have not provided updated earnings guidance

The trade deal represents a significant de-escalation in US-China trade tensions, potentially reducing market volatility and supporting risk assets. However, the sustainability of gains depends on successful implementation and broader economic fundamentals. The divergence between futures optimism and recent spot market performance suggests cautious positioning may be warranted.