In-depth Analysis of Short-term Strong Performance vs. Fundamental Dilemma of Central Shopping Mall (600280)

Central Shopping Mall (600280) closed at 4.31 yuan with a market capitalization of 4863 million yuan [0] on November 18 and 19, 2025, after hitting the daily limit for two consecutive days. The stock made it to the Dragon and Tiger List due to a cumulative deviation of over 20% in three days, with a three-day net purchase of 58.385 million yuan—among which, Guotai Haitong Securities Chengdu North First Ring Road Branch had a net purchase of 40.9399 million yuan [3]. However, the short-term strength is disconnected from fundamentals: from January to September 2025, revenue decreased by 9.63% year-on-year, with a net loss of 53.5379 million yuan [0]; it has been losing money for three consecutive years, and net profit fell by 191.95% in the first half of 2025 [0]. Regarding legal disputes, the company was ordered to pay 31.63 million yuan plus interest in a commissioned contract dispute [1][6], and was claimed nearly 52 million yuan for unpaid rent [5]; the lawsuit judgment will affect net profit [4].

1. Disconnect Between Short-term Speculation and Long-term Dilemma
   : The short-term rise stems from hot money inflows rather than fundamental improvements, and the long-term outlook is bleak.
2. Changes in Shareholder Structure
   : The number of shareholders decreased by 9.84%, and although chips are concentrated, combined with losses, this may reflect the exit of small and medium shareholders.
3. Industry Transformation Pressure
   : Traditional department stores have not effectively responded to online impacts, leading to continuous revenue decline [0].

:

• Performance Loss Risk
  : Three consecutive years of losses may trigger a delisting warning [0].
• Legal Dispute Risk
  : Multiple lawsuits and compensations will erode cash flow [1][5][6].
• Operational Deterioration Risk
  : Issues such as unpaid rent may lead to termination of cooperation [5].

: Short-term speculative opportunities exist, but they are accompanied by extremely high risks and are not suitable for long-term investors.

Central Shopping Mall (600280)'s short-term strength is driven by speculative funds and lacks fundamental support. Investors need to carefully evaluate the balance between short-term fluctuations and long-term risks to avoid blind following.