S&P 500 Bear Cycle Warning Analysis Report

November 18, 2025

On November 18, 2025, Finbold published an article warning of potential bear market signals for the S&P500 index. Key observations include:

1. The index slipped below its 50-day moving average (MA) and closed beneath that level on Monday (November 17), indicating weakening short-term momentum.
2. A bearish divergence on the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI): The index made higher highs while the RSI trended lower since late October—mirroring the setup preceding the 2022 bear market.
3. Critical support at the 100-day MA: A weekly close below this level would confirm a structural breakdown to a bearish phase, with projections of a retracement to 5300–5000 if the recent peak holds.
4. Divergent analyst views: Some Wall Street analysts remain bullish, projecting the index could reach 7000 next year. [1]

• Indices Performance:
  On November 18, major U.S. indices posted losses except the Russell 2000:
  • Dow Jones (-0.94%), NASDAQ (-0.85%), S&P500 (-0.59%). [0]
• Sector Rotation:
  Defensive sectors outperformed (Energy +1.64%, Utilities +0.84%), while growth sectors underperformed (Technology -0.46%, Consumer Cyclical -0.49%)—indicating a flight to safety. [0]

• The S&P500 trades below both its 20-day MA (6784.69) and 50-day MA (6709.50), key short-to-medium-term supports.
• A failure to recover above these levels and a weekly close below the 100-day MA (critical support highlighted in the article) would confirm a shift to a bearish cycle. [1,0]

Metric	Value	Source
S&P500 Nov18 Close	6602.16 (-0.59% day-over-day)	[0]
20-Day MA	6784.69	[0]
50-Day MA	6709.50	[0]
Recent High (60-day)	6920.34 (current close is ~4.6% below)	[0]
Top Sector (Nov18)	Energy (+1.64%)	[0]
Bottom Sector (Nov18)	Consumer Defensive (-1.0%)	[0]

1. Directly Impacted:
   S&P500 large-cap components (e.g., Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN)).
2. Defensive Sectors:
   Likely outperformers (Energy: ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX); Utilities: NextEra Energy (NEE)).
3. Growth Sectors:
   Potential underperformers (Technology: NVIDIA (NVDA), Meta (META); Consumer Cyclical: Tesla (TSLA)). [0]

1. Fundamental Drivers:
   Are recent economic data (inflation, jobless claims) or Fed comments contributing to the downturn?
2. Institutional Sentiment:
   What is the positioning of hedge funds/mutual funds in the market?
3. 100-Day MA Level:
   Exact value of this critical support is not provided in the dataset.

• Technical Breakdown Risk:
  Users should be aware that the S&P500’s breach of key moving averages and bearish RSI divergence may trigger a deeper correction to 5300–5000 if the peak holds. [1]
• Divergent Views:
  While technical signals are bearish, some analysts project 7000 next year—investors should balance technical and fundamental perspectives. [1]
• Sector Rotation Risk:
  Growth-oriented portfolios may face short-term pressure amid the shift to defensive sectors. [0]

1. Weekly close relative to the 100-day MA.
2. Upcoming economic data (GDP, PCE inflation) and Fed communications.
3. Persistence of defensive sector outperformance.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.