Tech Sector Option Data Analysis: Contrarian Bullish Signals Amid Put Buying Surge

This analysis is based on the Seeking Alpha article [1] published on November 18, 2025, which highlights a surge in directional put buying in the technology sector (Invesco QQQ Trust [QQQ] and Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund [XLK]) during a rally—typically a contrarian bullish signal. Despite no recent price decline, QQQ and XLK exhibit near-record dollar-based put purchases. Short-term, the tech sector declined 0.456% on publication day, with QQQ (-0.84%) and XLK (-1.21%) pulling back after intraday rallies [0]. Medium-term, the NASDAQ Composite outperformed broader indices over 60 days (+4.84% vs S&P500’s +2.59%) [0], aligning with the article’s observation of a sustained rally since April.

1. Contrarian Sentiment
   : The surge in put buying during a rally signals bullishness, contrasting with mainstream AI bubble concerns [1].
2. Tech Outperformance
   : The NASDAQ’s 60-day gain reflects ongoing medium-term strength in tech stocks [0].
3. Valuation-Sentiment Duality
   : Elevated P/E ratios (QQQ:33.75, XLK:39.22) [0] coexist with bullish option signals, creating a mixed outlook.

• Risks
  : Valuation risk (elevated P/E ratios), short-term profit-taking (publication day pullback), AI bubble concerns [0][1].
• Opportunities
  : Contrarian bullish signal from option data suggests potential medium-term upside [1].

Key data points: Near-record put purchases for QQQ/XLK during a rally [1]; NASDAQ’s 60-day gain (+4.84%) [0]; tech sector’s short-term decline (-0.456%) [0]; QQQ (33.75) and XLK (39.22) P/E ratios [0].